This year’s elections are like an IPL thriller. The results are not fixed, there are twists and turns after every strategic timeout, and even though we are in the slog overs, we don’t know who the winners are. The only difference is the players in this case don’t decide the result but the spectators -- you and I -- do.
Before I get on the front foot, let me put a disclaimer first, what I am going to say is not meant for weak-hearted Narendra Modi fans.
Essentially, I am going to list a few things many of us are overlooking in our eagerness for a Modi wave. This is purely a layman’s perspective, with no expertise behind the reasoning.
1) BJP strongholds
The BJP has to sweep Maharashtra,
Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Himachal Pradesh,
Punjab and Uttarakhand for a Modi wave to happen. They have 175 seats in total.
2) The UP factor
Uttar Pradesh has 80 seats. For any real wave, the BJP would want to win 50 or more seats. For this to happen the SP and BSP would have to lose considerable amount of votes. The desperation in the BJP shows as Modi shifts gears from development to caste, making ‘neech rajniti’ remark a caste slight.
3) The Bihar factor
Years ago, the BJP and Nitish Kumar joined hands not because they were long lost brothers from a Kumbh Mela. They came together when they realized Lalu was undefeatable as long as they were all divided. Now Bihar is back to square one. For a BJP wave, Paswan will have to bring enough votes, and Nitish’s own vote bank will have to shrink substantially in favour of the BJP.
4) New Conquests
The BJP is betting big on Modi’s popularity to win seats in south India and Odisha. In 2009, the BJP seat share in these states was as follows
a) Kerala: 0
b) Tamil Nadu: 0
c) Odisha: 0
d) West Bengal: 1
e) Andhra Pradesh: 0
The BJP vote share will definitely increase, in some places by over 100%, but can it make big gains?
5) What works for Modi
Modi will become PM, provided his losses in UP and Bihar are offset by the gains he makes in south India or vice versa. Yes he could be PM even if the NDA falls short of 272 by miles, because a lot of money is riding on him, and investors won’t let that go waste.
6) What goes against Modi
The Congress gave up the fight long time ago, but regional leaders like Mayawati and Lalu are putting up a fight. They are fighting for survival.
Now, why am I writing this?
First, I am running for PM, as you all know. It will reflect poorly on me if I were to surrender midway.
But the real point is this. I have seen two sets of party workers putting their hearts and souls into the campaign: BJP’s and AAP’s. Both are certain, to the extent of madness, that the government is theirs to form. They need reassurance in this hour of suspense.
I have only one thing to tell them, “You have done you work, now pray. Ab sab kuch ooparwale ke haath me hai (everything is in God’s hands). ”
2) The UP factor
Uttar Pradesh has 80 seats. For any real wave, the BJP would want to win 50 or more seats. For this to happen the SP and BSP would have to lose considerable amount of votes. The desperation in the BJP shows as Modi shifts gears from development to caste, making ‘neech rajniti’ remark a caste slight.
3) The Bihar factor
Years ago, the BJP and Nitish Kumar joined hands not because they were long lost brothers from a Kumbh Mela. They came together when they realized Lalu was undefeatable as long as they were all divided. Now Bihar is back to square one. For a BJP wave, Paswan will have to bring enough votes, and Nitish’s own vote bank will have to shrink substantially in favour of the BJP.
4) New Conquests
The BJP is betting big on Modi’s popularity to win seats in south India and Odisha. In 2009, the BJP seat share in these states was as follows
a) Kerala: 0
b) Tamil Nadu: 0
c) Odisha: 0
d) West Bengal: 1
e) Andhra Pradesh: 0
The BJP vote share will definitely increase, in some places by over 100%, but can it make big gains?
5) What works for Modi
Modi will become PM, provided his losses in UP and Bihar are offset by the gains he makes in south India or vice versa. Yes he could be PM even if the NDA falls short of 272 by miles, because a lot of money is riding on him, and investors won’t let that go waste.
6) What goes against Modi
The Congress gave up the fight long time ago, but regional leaders like Mayawati and Lalu are putting up a fight. They are fighting for survival.
Now, why am I writing this?
First, I am running for PM, as you all know. It will reflect poorly on me if I were to surrender midway.
But the real point is this. I have seen two sets of party workers putting their hearts and souls into the campaign: BJP’s and AAP’s. Both are certain, to the extent of madness, that the government is theirs to form. They need reassurance in this hour of suspense.
I have only one thing to tell them, “You have done you work, now pray. Ab sab kuch ooparwale ke haath me hai (everything is in God’s hands). ”
Follow me on twitter @jasooskutty
Totally stupid and biased analysis. Did shashi and Oomen set you up for this
ReplyDeleteShashi, oommen don't know about Kutty. Pls tell them :)
Delete