All that might be true, but that will only be a side effect. There must be a bigger picture, the jasoos in me thought. A visionary like Narendra Modi wouldn't do something that affects the lives of 135 crore people for a few handful of votes. Not unless it is in some way for the welfare of the 135 crore people.
This got me thinking. My week-long study of classified documents and interactions with the most powerful people who oil the wheels of the govt have led me to some startling revelations. Here is the gist of my research.
1. National security
India's security forces, especially the state police, hardly have any work or rather hardly do any work. Most are pot-bellied, though they would like us to believe it is some special muscle they have developed over the years by consuming high-protein diet that incidentally comes wrapped in fat. A little bit of action like a lathicharge will do them no harm. Many of them have no shooting practice. Mob violence gives the police a chance to practise what they learnt in the classrooms. Days or months after the protests die down, the Indian police force will be vastly improved and fighting fit.
2. Pakodanomics
The security angle is happenstance. More important is the effect these protests have on the economy. Everyone knows we are following the award winning economic theory called Pakodanomics. As has been explained in these pages earlier, pakodanomics has led to serious imbalance between supply and demand. Every economist on the planet agrees consumption is at the lowest in India in decades. What it means is we have too many people making pakodas and too few eating the pakodas that are getting made. The protests provide a unique opportunity for pakoda sellers, they are getting a ready-made market. Needless to say pakodas are selling like hot cakes in Shaheen Bagh, India Gate, Azad Maidan, Marine Drive, etc.
Consumption slump is a thing of the past, now please don't say we don't have enough supply. The govt can only solve one problem at a time.
3. Oil and gas
Arvind Subramanian is a smart ass. He spent years as chief economic advisor to the finance minister but never made any public comment against any policy against demonetization. Instead he stayed under the radar collecting data for his research for the next 10 years. Economists like him point to the reduction in fuel consumption to prove there is a slowdown. That is not a big issue at all. Today I took 40 minutes to cover 3 km in my car. Imagine millions of cars stuck in traffic jams caused by anti-CAA protests. Fuel consumption jumps, oil firms profit, consumption all around. Everybody is a winner.
The protests and the crackdown create a sort of stimulus for the economy. The pharma sector gets a big boost. Just imagine the business hospitals are doing now with all the injured flocking there. A bandage here, a surgery there sends the hospital cash registers ringing.
I admit the country's telecom sector is facing a serious crisis. A couple of companies may shut down, a few thousand people may lose their jobs, but the govt is on the job. It will certainly find a way to use the protests to aid the ailing telcos.
You don't believe me, just look at the Sensex. It is above 41,000 points. They know their business. There can be no better proof.
Postscript: This is a study in progress. If you know Reason No. 5, please do share.
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