This Sunday something extraordinary happened. The entire counting day, I did not have a single drop of whiskey. You will be wondering if I had vodka or gin, but let me assure you I did not touch alcohol. And it helped me see the elections for what they are. So here are my takeaways, not coloured by any shades of the bottle.
Modi magic
For the first time since 2014, Narendra Modi was not the biggest factor in an election. Unlike earlier elections, we didn’t see planted reports in the media that claimed how Modi turned things around in the last one week with his magnificent oratory and spectacular roadshows. One big sign that even the BJP was cagey about putting the PM in the front. But seeing how things turned out, Modi won the elections for the BJP in two states - in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, where ED too probably did its bit with its election-eve raids and arrests. Madhya Pradesh was won by a cornered Shivraj Singh Chouhan.
The 3-0 sweep of Hindi heartland however has added further to the Modi aura. It will inspire BJP voters and workers and demotivate Congress workers. Invincible Modi is the branding that is getting traction.
Cong clueless in Madhya Pradesh
If Chhindwara was a state, then Kamal Nath would be its CM. The trouble is Chhindwara is not a state, and outside of Chhindwara, Kamal Nath doesn’t have much appeal. Kamal Nath has been around since 1975 when emergency was imposed. If he had to become a CM, he would have become one in the 50 years or so he has been in politics. The other leader Digvijaya Singh, became a CM in his 40s. He is keeping the seat warm for his son, possibly to make a serious bid for power in the next elections. In 2018, the Congress had all the regions covered with the Scindia-Digvijaya-Kamal Nath trio. But after the elections, the old guard smoked out Scindia or Scindia walked out for a bungalow and power in Delhi, whichever version you want to believe. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra was their best bet, and the punt failed.
Hindutva
2014 was a vote for Vikas, 2019 was a vote for Hindutva-plus, but 2024 will be
a vote on governance. Many analysts will say the Congress lost the three states
in the Hindi heartland because of Hindutva, because of Udhayanidhi Stalin’s comment
on Sanatan Dharma. That is the easiest excuse to make. The Congress vote share
in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh has remained roughly the same. No
Hindus switched their votes from the Congress to punish the party and save the
religion. In Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the vote share of other parties came
down and the BJP was the beneficiary. Leaders like Kamal Nath, Bhupesh Baghel
feared Hindutva so much, they got busy making schemes for gauraksha and gobar
and lost the larger plot.
We should remember that Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, P.V. Narasimha Rao – all
of them pandered to Hindu sentiments. Sonia Gandhi brought a kind of liberalism
into politics which helped the BJP play the “Hindu khatre me” card. She also
brought in the concept of rights-based governance in a society where people are
used to mai-baap culture. Ten years later, the BJP has occupied the national
party space, reducing the Congress to a few states.
Today the non-core Hindu voters of the BJP feel their religion is safe under Modi, they are voting for Modi because they think he is doing a great job. Now, what you think are failures of the Modi govt in matters of governance are being seen as good policy by these voters. Remember even deaths during second Covid wave and demonetization did not change the view of these voters despite suffering so much pain and loss.
Hindutva has run its course. It has saturated in many parts but will find some growth areas too. But if the BJP wins 2024 it will be because the voter likes Modi’s governance.
The North-South divide is real and has been there forever. Make no mistake, Hindutva has takers in South India too. At some point the BJP will open its account in Kerala and it could become the principal opposition in Telangana or Andhra Pradesh. Hindutva can help the BJP attain a critical mass, like in Karnataka, but the party will have to look beyond Hindutva to rule the southern states.
One reason is that people of these states have strong feelings about their culture. Any attempt to impose one shade of Hinduism will meet with stiff resistance from them.
The Congress, however, can’t give the North-South divide as a reason for their failings. Instead they should export the energy and enthusiasm shown by its cadres and leaders in Karnataka and Telangana to north India.
After all what is the use of contesting elections if you have already given up
the fight? If that is the case Congress might as well shut shop and go home.
Caste census
The caste card remains the biggest antidote to Hindutva. Analysts will say it didn’t
work in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. These states though were not
affected by the caste politics in the Nineties though, why should they be now?
Caste census is an issue for Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the original Mandal vs Mandir
battleground. More than the Congress, it is an issue tailormade for parties
like the SP and RJD.
Priyanka factor
Priyanka Gandhi Vadra remains the best communicator the Congress has. Rahul
Gandhi can walk all that he wants, but he is unable to send his message across effectively.
His image among many Congress sympathizers is that of a ‘nice boy not meant for
politics’.
Unlike Rahul, whose every statement is distorted, his sister has a knack of effectively
countering her rivals’ political attacks. Her punchy dialogues at election rallies
in Karnataka have defanged the victim card played by Modi very often during
elections. She merely asked, “How can a man who has been in power for so many
years, flies superjets, come to you complaining about insults instead of listening
to your troubles?”
Brand Priyanka is no match for Brand Modi, but it is the best Cong has today.
