Make 2024 Modi vs Priyanka and get me the popcorn

This Sunday something extraordinary happened. The entire counting day, I did not have a single drop of whiskey. You will be wondering if I had vodka or gin, but let me assure you I did not touch alcohol. And it helped me see the elections for what they are. So here are my takeaways, not coloured by any shades of the bottle.

Modi magic

For the first time since 2014, Narendra Modi was not the biggest factor in an election. Unlike earlier elections, we didn’t see planted reports in the media that claimed how Modi turned things around in the last one week with his magnificent oratory and spectacular roadshows. One big sign that even the BJP was cagey about putting the PM in the front. But seeing how things turned out, Modi won the elections for the BJP in two states - in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, where ED too probably did its bit with its election-eve raids and arrests. Madhya Pradesh was won by a cornered Shivraj Singh Chouhan.

The 3-0 sweep of Hindi heartland however has added further to the Modi aura. It will inspire BJP voters and workers and demotivate Congress workers. Invincible Modi is the branding that is getting traction.


Cong clueless in Madhya Pradesh

If Chhindwara was a state, then Kamal Nath would be its CM. The trouble is Chhindwara is not a state, and outside of Chhindwara, Kamal Nath doesn’t have much appeal. Kamal Nath has been around since 1975 when emergency was imposed. If he had to become a CM, he would have become one in the 50 years or so he has been in politics. The other leader Digvijaya Singh, became a CM in his 40s. He is keeping the seat warm for his son, possibly to make a serious bid for power in the next elections. In 2018, the Congress had all the regions covered with the Scindia-Digvijaya-Kamal Nath trio. But after the elections, the old guard smoked out Scindia or Scindia walked out for a bungalow and power in Delhi, whichever version you want to believe. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra was their best bet, and the punt failed.

Hindutva

2014 was a vote for Vikas, 2019 was a vote for Hindutva-plus, but 2024 will be a vote on governance. Many analysts will say the Congress lost the three states in the Hindi heartland because of Hindutva, because of Udhayanidhi Stalin’s comment on Sanatan Dharma. That is the easiest excuse to make. The Congress vote share in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh has remained roughly the same. No Hindus switched their votes from the Congress to punish the party and save the religion. In Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the vote share of other parties came down and the BJP was the beneficiary. Leaders like Kamal Nath, Bhupesh Baghel feared Hindutva so much, they got busy making schemes for gauraksha and gobar and lost the larger plot.

We should remember that Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, P.V. Narasimha Rao – all of them pandered to Hindu sentiments. Sonia Gandhi brought a kind of liberalism into politics which helped the BJP play the “Hindu khatre me” card. She also brought in the concept of rights-based governance in a society where people are used to mai-baap culture. Ten years later, the BJP has occupied the national party space, reducing the Congress to a few states.

Today the non-core Hindu voters of the BJP feel their religion is safe under Modi, they are voting for Modi because they think he is doing a great job. Now, what you think are failures of the Modi govt in matters of governance are being seen as good policy by these voters. Remember even deaths during second Covid wave and demonetization did not change the view of these voters despite suffering so much pain and loss.

Hindutva has run its course. It has saturated in many parts but will find some growth areas too. But if the BJP wins 2024 it will be because the voter likes Modi’s governance.

North-South divide

The North-South divide is real and has been there forever. Make no mistake, Hindutva has takers in South India too. At some point the BJP will open its account in Kerala and it could become the principal opposition in Telangana or Andhra Pradesh. Hindutva can help the BJP attain a critical mass, like in Karnataka, but the party will have to look beyond Hindutva to rule the southern states.

One reason is that people of these states have strong feelings about their culture. Any attempt to impose one shade of Hinduism will meet with stiff resistance from them.

The Congress, however, can’t give the North-South divide as a reason for their failings. Instead they should export the energy and enthusiasm shown by its cadres and leaders in Karnataka and Telangana to north India.

After all what is the use of contesting elections if you have already given up the fight? If that is the case Congress might as well shut shop and go home.

Caste census

The caste card remains the biggest antidote to Hindutva. Analysts will say it didn’t work in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. These states though were not affected by the caste politics in the Nineties though, why should they be now? Caste census is an issue for Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the original Mandal vs Mandir battleground. More than the Congress, it is an issue tailormade for parties like the SP and RJD.

Priyanka factor

Priyanka Gandhi Vadra remains the best communicator the Congress has. Rahul Gandhi can walk all that he wants, but he is unable to send his message across effectively. His image among many Congress sympathizers is that of a ‘nice boy not meant for politics’.

Unlike Rahul, whose every statement is distorted, his sister has a knack of effectively countering her rivals’ political attacks. Her punchy dialogues at election rallies in Karnataka have defanged the victim card played by Modi very often during elections. She merely asked, “How can a man who has been in power for so many years, flies superjets, come to you complaining about insults instead of listening to your troubles?”

Brand Priyanka is no match for Brand Modi, but it is the best Cong has today.

Modi is India, India is Modi

When Narendra Modi speaks in Parliament, which is rare, everyone listens. His fans, his critics, his trolls, pretty much everyone. And he never lets us down.

This week, the PM spoke his mind, wearing a jacket of recycled plastic according to his PR machinery, but evidently the man himself thought it was Teflon. The speech exuded such confidence.

There are two ways I listen to his speech. One, I read between the lines. Two, I do not read between the lines. Then, by now you all know, I employ the good old Sherlock Holmes principle - When you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. 

So when Modi said, “If Nehru is such a great man, why are his grandkids and great grand kids not using the Nehru surname”, many took it as another attempt to belittle the country’s first prime minister, an intellectual giant, the kind of who we rarely see. But not me. 

I thought and over-thought the remark in my head many times over. I dissected it with scalpel blade 15. And finally came to a conclusion.

Suppose Indira Priyadarshini had retained her father’s surname instead of adding her husband’s after marriage. Suppose Indira’s sons took their mother’s surname instead of their father’s. Too many suppositions, I know, but you must not lose track. Suppose their kids took their surname from their mothers instead of their father. It would have been a tremendous strike at the root of patriarchy coming straight from the First Family of India. Now the Leader’s statement starts making sense. Immense sense.

Not everything Modi said came coded in Greek. Most of it was plainspeak.

He said the UPA converted every opportunity into a scam. Isn’t that true? Even when there was no scam, Manmohan Singh’s partymen told us there is one, to polish the heir apparent’s resume, to present him as the hero who will set all things that are wrong with the UPA right. For some strange reason the heir refused to join the govt and clean up the mess, instead waiting for the elections. The voter had different ideas. 

The most controversial bits in Modi’s speeches came in two parts over two days.

“The country trusts me and not the abuses and accusations you throw at me.”

“Ek akela kitno pe bhaari pad raha hai.”

He is just being truthful.

If hours long queues to take money out of ATM could not unseat him, if thousands of deaths caused by oxygen shortage could not unseat his party in Uttar Pradesh, nothing else will. Definitely not a businessman out to make some quick buck. 

Nor a cross-country yatra to unite the country. For starters, how do you unite a country where the majority feels there are no divisions.

The likes of Mani Shankar Aiyar and Chidambaram and Jairam Ramesh will remind you how JP dethroned Indira and how VP Singh defeated Rajiv Gandhi.

There is a big difference.

Indira made an enemy of every Opposition leader. All of them ganged up with the common aim of toppling her and with personal ambitions of becoming PM.

Her son was no great politician and opposition had the self-belief – if Indira can be defeated, then Rajiv certainly can be.  

Modi has learnt from the mistakes of Indira, Rajiv and Manmohan.

One, don’t give opposition leaders a reason to gang up against him. So he will give Naveen Patnaik, Jagan Reddy, K Chandrasekhar Rao, Akhilesh Yadav, etc their free space at the state level. The opposition is perennially divided.

Two, rule with an iron fist when you have such a brutal majority. Rajiv suffered because VP Singh, right under his nose, turned against him, rather the PM allowed him to.  

Three, never let the public get even a whiff of a scam even if there is one. Ignore charges being leveled by the Opposition unlike Manmohan who would sack ministers and order investigations. Modi has one advantage. The fear factor. From the fourth estate to pretty much every estate, no one dare point a finger at him. 

Modi is bigger than the BJP. Modi is bigger than the RSS. The trouble is he knows it, though his modesty doesn’t let him say so openly.

 “Ek akela kitno pe bhaari pad raha hai.”

When Modi said that, thumping his Chappan Chaathi multiple times, his party colleagues in the ministry and Parliament, stood up to give him an ovation. As they did that, they saw something we didn’t on the TV, thanks to their privileged seats right next to the PM. They spotted the Halo.

To them, and sadly many more outside, Modi is India and India is Modi. 

Ek akela aadmi sab pe bhaari.

Post script : After all, the investors who put money in the group did so, not because India is a land of opportunities, but because of the promoters' proximity to the PM.