Make 2024 Modi vs Priyanka and get me the popcorn

This Sunday something extraordinary happened. The entire counting day, I did not have a single drop of whiskey. You will be wondering if I had vodka or gin, but let me assure you I did not touch alcohol. And it helped me see the elections for what they are. So here are my takeaways, not coloured by any shades of the bottle.

Modi magic

For the first time since 2014, Narendra Modi was not the biggest factor in an election. Unlike earlier elections, we didn’t see planted reports in the media that claimed how Modi turned things around in the last one week with his magnificent oratory and spectacular roadshows. One big sign that even the BJP was cagey about putting the PM in the front. But seeing how things turned out, Modi won the elections for the BJP in two states - in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, where ED too probably did its bit with its election-eve raids and arrests. Madhya Pradesh was won by a cornered Shivraj Singh Chouhan.

The 3-0 sweep of Hindi heartland however has added further to the Modi aura. It will inspire BJP voters and workers and demotivate Congress workers. Invincible Modi is the branding that is getting traction.


Cong clueless in Madhya Pradesh

If Chhindwara was a state, then Kamal Nath would be its CM. The trouble is Chhindwara is not a state, and outside of Chhindwara, Kamal Nath doesn’t have much appeal. Kamal Nath has been around since 1975 when emergency was imposed. If he had to become a CM, he would have become one in the 50 years or so he has been in politics. The other leader Digvijaya Singh, became a CM in his 40s. He is keeping the seat warm for his son, possibly to make a serious bid for power in the next elections. In 2018, the Congress had all the regions covered with the Scindia-Digvijaya-Kamal Nath trio. But after the elections, the old guard smoked out Scindia or Scindia walked out for a bungalow and power in Delhi, whichever version you want to believe. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra was their best bet, and the punt failed.

Hindutva

2014 was a vote for Vikas, 2019 was a vote for Hindutva-plus, but 2024 will be a vote on governance. Many analysts will say the Congress lost the three states in the Hindi heartland because of Hindutva, because of Udhayanidhi Stalin’s comment on Sanatan Dharma. That is the easiest excuse to make. The Congress vote share in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh has remained roughly the same. No Hindus switched their votes from the Congress to punish the party and save the religion. In Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the vote share of other parties came down and the BJP was the beneficiary. Leaders like Kamal Nath, Bhupesh Baghel feared Hindutva so much, they got busy making schemes for gauraksha and gobar and lost the larger plot.

We should remember that Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, P.V. Narasimha Rao – all of them pandered to Hindu sentiments. Sonia Gandhi brought a kind of liberalism into politics which helped the BJP play the “Hindu khatre me” card. She also brought in the concept of rights-based governance in a society where people are used to mai-baap culture. Ten years later, the BJP has occupied the national party space, reducing the Congress to a few states.

Today the non-core Hindu voters of the BJP feel their religion is safe under Modi, they are voting for Modi because they think he is doing a great job. Now, what you think are failures of the Modi govt in matters of governance are being seen as good policy by these voters. Remember even deaths during second Covid wave and demonetization did not change the view of these voters despite suffering so much pain and loss.

Hindutva has run its course. It has saturated in many parts but will find some growth areas too. But if the BJP wins 2024 it will be because the voter likes Modi’s governance.

North-South divide

The North-South divide is real and has been there forever. Make no mistake, Hindutva has takers in South India too. At some point the BJP will open its account in Kerala and it could become the principal opposition in Telangana or Andhra Pradesh. Hindutva can help the BJP attain a critical mass, like in Karnataka, but the party will have to look beyond Hindutva to rule the southern states.

One reason is that people of these states have strong feelings about their culture. Any attempt to impose one shade of Hinduism will meet with stiff resistance from them.

The Congress, however, can’t give the North-South divide as a reason for their failings. Instead they should export the energy and enthusiasm shown by its cadres and leaders in Karnataka and Telangana to north India.

After all what is the use of contesting elections if you have already given up the fight? If that is the case Congress might as well shut shop and go home.

Caste census

The caste card remains the biggest antidote to Hindutva. Analysts will say it didn’t work in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. These states though were not affected by the caste politics in the Nineties though, why should they be now? Caste census is an issue for Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the original Mandal vs Mandir battleground. More than the Congress, it is an issue tailormade for parties like the SP and RJD.

Priyanka factor

Priyanka Gandhi Vadra remains the best communicator the Congress has. Rahul Gandhi can walk all that he wants, but he is unable to send his message across effectively. His image among many Congress sympathizers is that of a ‘nice boy not meant for politics’.

Unlike Rahul, whose every statement is distorted, his sister has a knack of effectively countering her rivals’ political attacks. Her punchy dialogues at election rallies in Karnataka have defanged the victim card played by Modi very often during elections. She merely asked, “How can a man who has been in power for so many years, flies superjets, come to you complaining about insults instead of listening to your troubles?”

Brand Priyanka is no match for Brand Modi, but it is the best Cong has today.

7 reasons why I idolise Modi

PM Narendra Modi goes to the jungle when he wants to introspect or contemplate big issues of life like how to eat the mango. Who take so much trouble - taking a bus to the jungle, staying there for a whole week, drinking a cup of tea and waiting for nirvana to happen. I just go to the balcony and take a bottle of Jawan rum with me. I just had two double large and it got me thinking. Why am I a Modi fan? Since I am still high as I put it on paper, I will be brutally honest.

1. Modi an inspiration for the average student

Modi comes from a humble background. You will say Manmohan too was a poor chap, a victim of partition who rebuilt his life, secured a doctorate in economics from Cambridge or Oxford or wherever, headed the central bank of India and went on to become the Prime Minister. That is the difference. Modi did none of that and yet became the Prime Minister. He is an inspiration for the millions of average students like us who have grown up suffering lectures from our parents on the importance of studies. ‘Learn English and maths and you are through,’ was the common refrain. Now we know all that was not needed. If I may say, Modi is the Bill Gates of politics. 

2. Muslims have been shown their place

I ask those lecturing about secularism why should I bother about Muslims. I hardly meet any in the offices I work or where I live. I hear their population is rising. Whatsapp tells me they are always plotting something or the other. The Modi govt has shown them their place, and it doesn’t add to much. No more minority vote bank deciding who rules India. Before you accuse me of Islamophobia, let me make it clear I like the biryanis, kababs, haleem and mutton barra they make.

3. The myth of saffron terror 

Hindus don’t commit acts of terror. They only lynch or murder. Terrorism is the sole preserve of Muslims. You doubt me? Look around the globe. The US, Europe, Sri Lanka… A few people argue Muslims are the largest victims of terrorism, that ISIS has killed thousands of Muslims. That is their problem, not mine.

4. Pakistan

We Indians had so many kings and emperors in the past. Do you remember any of them for the work they did? For example do you know India was the richest country in the world under Akbar the Great. Do you talk about the religious tolerance in his kingdom. No. What you remember is the wars he waged, and ones we want to believe he lost. Even the world wars, what we know is who won, who lost, not the number of dead or the nuclear bombing or the misery the war unleashed on millions of people. Everybody loves a war. Modi promises one every now and then against an enemy who keeps needling us.

5. General knowledge

For us in school, social studies, for that matter any subject, was boring. Modi has made them exciting. Now we merrily discuss how Jawaharlal Nehru, that scoundrel of the highest order, backstabbed Subhas Chandra Bose, Sardar Patel and Mahatma Gandhi, all in one go. The study of history was never as thrilling as it is now. Forget that, we on social media now discuss the Aryan migration theory vs Aryan invasion theory vs the export of vedas theory. Had Sonia Gandhi been the PM, we would have been taking down pizza recipes from Internet.

6. Entertainment 

Modi gives us tax-free entertainment. No need to get into a car, go to the multiplex, book tickets for hundreds of rupees, needlessly munch butter-soaked popcorn. Now we eat home-made pakodas with chai while watching Rockstar Modi live on TV from wherever he is. There are times I get so thrilled by the stunts, I start shouting ‘Modi, Modi’.

7. Modi speaks our language 

Manmohan Singh, though from a humble background, spoke like an intellectual. He will talk about fiscal deficit, current account deficit, mortgage crisis, in a language ordinary people can’t use or understand. May be he did it on purpose so that Rahul Gandhi doesn’t understand either. Modi is not like that. What he wants he says upfront. He cracks jokes, which many find distasteful. See every joke comes at someone’s expense, sometimes at autistic kids’, other times at women’s. But that is how we people talk. The only thing Modi hasn’t said and the only joke he hasn’t cracked is the MC-BC variety we use liberally. Modi is one among us.

My third double large down, I feel like Karan Johar after his toast. I am going to take the fourth one now.

Chowkidar Narayanoski Kieślowski is a Modi bhakt. Here is why

I am Jasoos Narayanoski Kieślowski. Over the last five years I have been watching from miles away a rare talent bloom in India.

First I was dismissive, then skeptical, but now I am a converted bhakt.

If there is one person I would pick to make a film to save my life , it would be Narendra Damodardas Modi. The best part is while his direction might look like Bollywood masala, if you keep watching again and again, the production will grow on you, and you get to see the deeper art, economics and politics of it all.

Now more than art and politics, I am more impressed by his innovative economics.

He will scrap 500 and 1000 rupee notes in the same way he finishes a piece of dhokla. He will kill jobs surveys, he will change growth calculation parameters -- like Kudiyan paramu finishes a double large in a single gulp.

There is a method in this madness.

Even I, despite all my powers of deduction and seduction, would have missed the big picture. After weeks of drinking whiskeys -- didn’t I tell you I have stopped drinking rum for health reasons -- and smoking joints, everything became clear, crystal clear.

Now I will clear your doubts one by one.

Let us take jobs for instance. We all agree maximum jobs are in the informal sector. The NSSO survey doesn’t cover it as well as it should. Yesterday at the maidan I saw a harmless game of cricket between Mulla XI and Sanghi XI - these days that is how they name their teams. And they were playing for money. It was a clear economic activity at the end of which one side would get richer by 1000 rupees, the other poorer by 1000 rupees. A proper business transaction with a profit and loss balance sheet which has not been recorded by any official mechanism.

Or for that matter the three people who were playing cards for money. Do you think any man ow woman with self-respect man would admit he earns his living playing teen patti. Does NSSO survey capture all this? Nah.

And why this obsession with money. Every bit of action and inaction has an economic value. A man sleeping in the park gets mental piece which definitely is worth the 1000 or 2000 rupees he would have otherwise earned doing some other work. By that logic sleeping on the park bench qualifies to be a job. And it definitely needs to reflect on GDP numbers, job surveys and happiness index.

You may laugh at Modi but at your own risk. His theory of climate change was derided when he proposed it to the international community, but a recent study has proved what he said beyond any doubt. The pathbreaking research has found climate change doesn’t affect human beings as they just adapt to the changes. For instance if the winter gets longer they just buy a few more sweaters or if the summers get hotter, they buy a few more air-conditioners. Homo sapiens may later grow fur or shed skin as the case might be.

Modi right now is spearheading the world’s biggest job generation exercise, hitherto unseen. At a scale never imagined before.

Let me explain.

The first thing that came to Modi’s notice when he came to power was India’s manufacturing that was in dire straits. He immediately started work on it by promoting chaiwalas. Suddenly there was a spurt in business, people lined up to sell tea. But that wasn’t enough. So he promoted pakodewalas.

There might be people who label these as services but in reality it is manufacturing. It doesn’t matter if we make pakodas or Rafale jets or super computers as long as we make something.

The economic model however was not sustainable. We had two sets of manufacturers who had started bartering in the absence of real customers.

India needed a leap in the services sector. That is where chowkidars fit in. Now we have a whole new class that will buy stuff manufactured by chaiwalas and pakorewalas.

Chowkidars were the missing piece in the Modinomics riddle.

The best part is every citizen gets to become a chowkidar. Just imagine Chowkidar Bhiku, a beggar by profession, walking up to Chowkidar Ambani or Chowkidar Adani, put his arms around their shoulders, and say “Tumhari chowkidari kaise chal rahi hai?” And they would reply with all humility and respect, “Modiji ke kripa se bahut achchi chal rahi hai.” All this under the watchful eyes of Chowkidar Yeddyurappa and Chowkidar Arun Jaitley.

Politicians, business tycoons, rape suspects, scamsters, racketers, teachers, honest tax payers, honest tax evaders, poets, actors, singers, underworld gangsters… all under one roof.

The chowkidari system is the biggest social experiment the world has seen.

Modi has achieved in five years what the Communists and Gandhians toiled for a century and failed. He certainly deserves a Nobel for entire economics.

Modi is Douglas Jardine and Bradman rolled into one

Elections are to Narendra Modi what runs were to Sir Donald Bradman. Except, cricket was a gentleman’s game then, and there was never anything gentlemanly about politics.

Modi will do anything to win elections. He will stand tall one second, he will stoop low the next.

The airstrike on Balakot marked a big shift in India’s strategy in the fight against terror and its chief sponsor Pakistan. For the first time Indian Air Force jets crossed the line of control since 1971. But for the BJP, it wasn’t good enough. They needed to a put number to the kill, a number good enough for their 56 chaathi leader. So they said 300 terrorists killed, though the govt officially never mentioned it.

That is Modi’s style. Now endless memes and fake news videos will be circulated in the most effective election tools of our age, that is Whatsapp and Facebook.
And people generally believe whatever they get on whatsapp. 2019 could well be an election which will be decided by fake news and innuendos.

That much is evident from Modi’s statements since the air raid. He is already asking people ‘are you with us or them’, bracketing the opposition with terrorists. No one has done this before, probably no one will do later.

The opposition’s challenge is to find a leader who can pay Modi back in the same coin. Someone who can be as mean, as arrogant, as angry, and at times as witty as Modi. And that somebody must speak Hindi. Hindi heartland is where the BJP needs to be defeated if opposition fancies any chance of winning power.

What are their options then?

Nitish Kumar was a good bet, but he chose to sleep with the enemy.

Lalu Yadav could have done it, but he is in jail.

Akhilesh Yadav has the ability, but his popularity is restricted to UP.

Kanhaiya Kumar can do it, but he is in the wrong party, and lacks stature.

You are left with Rahul Gandhi.

Rahul has many strengths. He appears sincere, has a boyish charm. He has his weaknesses too. He can’t be mean even if he wanted to. He can’t be witty, that doesn’t come naturally to him.

They are left with one person who could do the job. Priyanka Vadra. For some strange reason the Congress has restricted her to some 35 seats in UP, where they in any case don’t stand a chance to win much. Any gain the Congress makes there will only weaken the SP-BSP and help the BJP. The party is saving its brahmastra for bigger battles ahead which makes one wonder what can be a bigger fight than the Lok Sabha election.

Like I said, votes are to Modi, what runs were to Bradman.

Modi however is more than that. He doesn’t play by the rules. Modi wants to make the 2019 elections presidential. He is telling the voter, it is either me or that dimwit Rahul. To hammer this message, he can go to any extent. He will call Rahul mentally retarded, that is what he meant when he called his rival dyslexic, pardon his ignorance and insensitivity. He will call Rahul anti-national, don’t be surprised if one of these days he calls him a terrorist as well.

Whatsapp and social media have made politics as thrilling as a Twenty20 match. And just like we appreciate Virat Kohli giving it back to the Aussies, society as a whole, especially middle class, like the crass sledging Modi and his teammates indulge in.

Modi is ready to play dirty to win a match, whether it is underarm bowling or bodyline bowling. Modi is Douglas Jardine and Bradman rolled into one. Now that is a combo hard to match, tough to beat.

A gazillion reasons why Priyanka will fail, and one reason why she may not

In our childhood we rarely got to eat out. Once in a while we would go to nearby arrack shops to eat beef or mutton. Now, because it is a rare occasion, we cherished those visits. So much so, we wouldn’t use the soap to wash our hands in order to preserve the aroma of the spicy food. Every now and then we would smell our hands and relive the taste.

When Priyanka Gandhi campaigned in Bellary for her mother in 1999 against Sushma Swaraj, she broke the security cordon to interact with women and kids. All she did was shake hands or pat the cheeks, but the recipients of the affection were left in awe and admiration. The joke then was that those who got to shake hands with her, including journalists, didn’t wash their hands to savour the perfume she was wearing.

That was then. The Bellary of 2019 is not the Bellary of 1999. What was then a poverty-ridden countryside is now home to millionaires who rode the wave of liberalisation and mining scams. The region has a thriving middle class today.

What I mean is India has changed. The Congress is not going improve its tally in Uttar Pradesh just because Priyanka Gandhi is going to campaign for them.

A Congress bhakt can argue Priyanka is sundar and susheel, but then so are Priyanka Chopra and Deepika Padukone. Would they win elections for a party because they are sundar and susheel?

The surname? The less said the better.

As things stand now, even the big daddy of Gandhis - Mohandas Karamchand -- will not win an election in UP, if he were to contest today. You would call me ignorant and stupid for saying so, but damn it, there are enough BJP bhakts who believe the Mahatma lent the Gandhi surname to Feroze so that Indira could spawn a dynasty.

Priyanka’s resemblance to Indira is also of no use. Those days people had to stand in long queues every month for their share of ration and felt in debt to the Iron Lady for providing do waqt ki roti. Those very exact people are now above 60 and would add up to less than 10% of the population.

The rest have heard stories of Indira of winning a war against Pakistan, but have also heard stories of how she didn’t keep the spoils of the war. They have also heard stories of licence raj, bank nationalisation, etc , etc… No matter what the Gandhi family says, this lot would rather believe a Modi when he says he spends 5 days in a jungle every year or he does yoga every day or he killed a crocodile as a child (which his bhakts claim).

Why go back, there is enough evidence to suggest Priyanka’s campaigns won’t work. She did campaign in 2014. You can’t say it doesn’t count as she limited herself to Amethi, these days you don’t need to physically campaign in remote locations, television and social media are there to spread the message. More recently she campaigned for brother Rahul and Akhilesh in 2017. What came of it?

That doesn’t mean it’s a hopeless scenario.

A journalist once described Priyanka’s role in politics so far, as that of an item girl, but she has now graduated to the main cast. It certainly brings some opportunities for the Congress.

Rahul is not a natural when it comes to countering Modi’s attacks, especially when he gets personal. The Congress president has countered that weakness by being the ‘good boy'. With Priyanka, she is capable of payback. And she is a woman. Even a Modi will think twice before passing a comment on her.

If the Congress denies BJP a majority in 2019, it will not because Priyanka entered politics, but because people are unhappy with Modi. Priyanka’s job, Rahul’s as well, will be to tap this frustration and expose the rival effectively.

The Gandhi surname can help Rahul become the president, and Priyanka become the general secretary, of the Indian National Congress, but people of India don’t vote for them anymore because they are Gandhis.