Modi is Douglas Jardine and Bradman rolled into one

Elections are to Narendra Modi what runs were to Sir Donald Bradman. Except, cricket was a gentleman’s game then, and there was never anything gentlemanly about politics.

Modi will do anything to win elections. He will stand tall one second, he will stoop low the next.

The airstrike on Balakot marked a big shift in India’s strategy in the fight against terror and its chief sponsor Pakistan. For the first time Indian Air Force jets crossed the line of control since 1971. But for the BJP, it wasn’t good enough. They needed to a put number to the kill, a number good enough for their 56 chaathi leader. So they said 300 terrorists killed, though the govt officially never mentioned it.

That is Modi’s style. Now endless memes and fake news videos will be circulated in the most effective election tools of our age, that is Whatsapp and Facebook.
And people generally believe whatever they get on whatsapp. 2019 could well be an election which will be decided by fake news and innuendos.

That much is evident from Modi’s statements since the air raid. He is already asking people ‘are you with us or them’, bracketing the opposition with terrorists. No one has done this before, probably no one will do later.

The opposition’s challenge is to find a leader who can pay Modi back in the same coin. Someone who can be as mean, as arrogant, as angry, and at times as witty as Modi. And that somebody must speak Hindi. Hindi heartland is where the BJP needs to be defeated if opposition fancies any chance of winning power.

What are their options then?

Nitish Kumar was a good bet, but he chose to sleep with the enemy.

Lalu Yadav could have done it, but he is in jail.

Akhilesh Yadav has the ability, but his popularity is restricted to UP.

Kanhaiya Kumar can do it, but he is in the wrong party, and lacks stature.

You are left with Rahul Gandhi.

Rahul has many strengths. He appears sincere, has a boyish charm. He has his weaknesses too. He can’t be mean even if he wanted to. He can’t be witty, that doesn’t come naturally to him.

They are left with one person who could do the job. Priyanka Vadra. For some strange reason the Congress has restricted her to some 35 seats in UP, where they in any case don’t stand a chance to win much. Any gain the Congress makes there will only weaken the SP-BSP and help the BJP. The party is saving its brahmastra for bigger battles ahead which makes one wonder what can be a bigger fight than the Lok Sabha election.

Like I said, votes are to Modi, what runs were to Bradman.

Modi however is more than that. He doesn’t play by the rules. Modi wants to make the 2019 elections presidential. He is telling the voter, it is either me or that dimwit Rahul. To hammer this message, he can go to any extent. He will call Rahul mentally retarded, that is what he meant when he called his rival dyslexic, pardon his ignorance and insensitivity. He will call Rahul anti-national, don’t be surprised if one of these days he calls him a terrorist as well.

Whatsapp and social media have made politics as thrilling as a Twenty20 match. And just like we appreciate Virat Kohli giving it back to the Aussies, society as a whole, especially middle class, like the crass sledging Modi and his teammates indulge in.

Modi is ready to play dirty to win a match, whether it is underarm bowling or bodyline bowling. Modi is Douglas Jardine and Bradman rolled into one. Now that is a combo hard to match, tough to beat.

Stop gloating, Modi can still win this

(I have watched hours of election analysis and prepared this brief report for my clients so that they don’t waste their time watching TV news. They can rest assured and watch Netflix)  

Preparing batter for dosa and idli is an expert task. If you want idli, you add a little more urad dal. It’s about getting the right mix.

Elections in Uttar Pradesh are a bit like that. The trick is in getting the caste combination right. So an SP-BSP combo is unbeatable. Yes, at times, on very rare occasions, a leader could break the caste barriers. It happened in 2014, but the shine is gone. People of Uttar Pradesh have probably seen through the jumlas.

Uttar Pradesh can make or break the BJP in 2019. It gifted Narendra Modi 73 seats last time, and every seat it loses, it needs to win somewhere else -- from Northeast or Odisha or Bengal or Kerala or Tamil Nadu or wherever.

So these bypolls are not a headache for Modi. These were in fact warmup games. Now he knows his weaknesses, and, most importantly, has finished off one possible rival in Yogi Adityanath. ‘Bache tum pehle Gorakhpur sambhalo, desh ki mujh pe chhod do.’

So, what have we learnt?

1. Mayawati’s voters are loyal to her, they will vote for whoever she asks them to. Even if it means voting for Yadavs. Her bargaining power is up.

2. It is not necessary the SP and BSP stay together in 2019. The BJP could get Mayawati on its side, it has happened before, it could happen again.

3. The BJP could strike a backroom deal with Mayawati and she could fight elections alone, with some friendly fights thrown in.

4. The Congress won’t have much say if the SP and BSP stick together. Why waste seats on a party which doesn’t have a vote bank of its own? It should consider itself lucky if the SP and BSP give them Amethi and Rae Bareli.

The results in Bihar are more interesting. The combined might of the BJP and Nitish Kumar could not beat Lalu Yadav’s candidate in Araria. If the votes stayed as they were in 2014, the NDA candidate should have won hands down.

Two things are possible.

1. People are so upset with Nitish, his former voters have voted for Lalu.

2. BJP voters ditched Nitish’s candidate, now he is at their mercy. The BJP for instance doesn’t mind Nitish fighting elections alone. In 2014, when he did so, Nitish was reduced to two seats. And Lalu is unlikely to ally with the Bihar CM again if he were to break away from the BJP. In all these calculations, Nitish ends up the biggest loser.

Modi can change all these calculations of course. All he needs to do is promise another 15 lakh rupees in you bank account. That would be like adding sugar to the rice batter, and you will then get neiyappam instead of dosa or idli.

PS: Many will argue there is no urad dal in neiyappam. That is poetic licence.