(I have watched hours of election analysis and prepared this brief report for my clients so that they don’t waste their time watching TV news. They can rest assured and watch Netflix)
Preparing batter for dosa and idli is an expert task. If you want idli, you add a little more urad dal. It’s about getting the right mix.
Elections in Uttar Pradesh are a bit like that. The trick is in getting the caste combination right. So an SP-BSP combo is unbeatable. Yes, at times, on very rare occasions, a leader could break the caste barriers. It happened in 2014, but the shine is gone. People of Uttar Pradesh have probably seen through the jumlas.
Uttar Pradesh can make or break the BJP in 2019. It gifted Narendra Modi 73 seats last time, and every seat it loses, it needs to win somewhere else -- from Northeast or Odisha or Bengal or Kerala or Tamil Nadu or wherever.
So these bypolls are not a headache for Modi. These were in fact warmup games. Now he knows his weaknesses, and, most importantly, has finished off one possible rival in Yogi Adityanath. ‘Bache tum pehle Gorakhpur sambhalo, desh ki mujh pe chhod do.’
So, what have we learnt?
1. Mayawati’s voters are loyal to her, they will vote for whoever she asks them to. Even if it means voting for Yadavs. Her bargaining power is up.
2. It is not necessary the SP and BSP stay together in 2019. The BJP could get Mayawati on its side, it has happened before, it could happen again.
3. The BJP could strike a backroom deal with Mayawati and she could fight elections alone, with some friendly fights thrown in.
4. The Congress won’t have much say if the SP and BSP stick together. Why waste seats on a party which doesn’t have a vote bank of its own? It should consider itself lucky if the SP and BSP give them Amethi and Rae Bareli.
The results in Bihar are more interesting. The combined might of the BJP and Nitish Kumar could not beat Lalu Yadav’s candidate in Araria. If the votes stayed as they were in 2014, the NDA candidate should have won hands down.
Two things are possible.
1. People are so upset with Nitish, his former voters have voted for Lalu.
2. BJP voters ditched Nitish’s candidate, now he is at their mercy. The BJP for instance doesn’t mind Nitish fighting elections alone. In 2014, when he did so, Nitish was reduced to two seats. And Lalu is unlikely to ally with the Bihar CM again if he were to break away from the BJP. In all these calculations, Nitish ends up the biggest loser.
Modi can change all these calculations of course. All he needs to do is promise another 15 lakh rupees in you bank account. That would be like adding sugar to the rice batter, and you will then get neiyappam instead of dosa or idli.
PS: Many will argue there is no urad dal in neiyappam. That is poetic licence.
Preparing batter for dosa and idli is an expert task. If you want idli, you add a little more urad dal. It’s about getting the right mix.
Elections in Uttar Pradesh are a bit like that. The trick is in getting the caste combination right. So an SP-BSP combo is unbeatable. Yes, at times, on very rare occasions, a leader could break the caste barriers. It happened in 2014, but the shine is gone. People of Uttar Pradesh have probably seen through the jumlas.
Uttar Pradesh can make or break the BJP in 2019. It gifted Narendra Modi 73 seats last time, and every seat it loses, it needs to win somewhere else -- from Northeast or Odisha or Bengal or Kerala or Tamil Nadu or wherever.
So these bypolls are not a headache for Modi. These were in fact warmup games. Now he knows his weaknesses, and, most importantly, has finished off one possible rival in Yogi Adityanath. ‘Bache tum pehle Gorakhpur sambhalo, desh ki mujh pe chhod do.’
So, what have we learnt?
1. Mayawati’s voters are loyal to her, they will vote for whoever she asks them to. Even if it means voting for Yadavs. Her bargaining power is up.
2. It is not necessary the SP and BSP stay together in 2019. The BJP could get Mayawati on its side, it has happened before, it could happen again.
3. The BJP could strike a backroom deal with Mayawati and she could fight elections alone, with some friendly fights thrown in.
4. The Congress won’t have much say if the SP and BSP stick together. Why waste seats on a party which doesn’t have a vote bank of its own? It should consider itself lucky if the SP and BSP give them Amethi and Rae Bareli.
The results in Bihar are more interesting. The combined might of the BJP and Nitish Kumar could not beat Lalu Yadav’s candidate in Araria. If the votes stayed as they were in 2014, the NDA candidate should have won hands down.
Two things are possible.
1. People are so upset with Nitish, his former voters have voted for Lalu.
2. BJP voters ditched Nitish’s candidate, now he is at their mercy. The BJP for instance doesn’t mind Nitish fighting elections alone. In 2014, when he did so, Nitish was reduced to two seats. And Lalu is unlikely to ally with the Bihar CM again if he were to break away from the BJP. In all these calculations, Nitish ends up the biggest loser.
Modi can change all these calculations of course. All he needs to do is promise another 15 lakh rupees in you bank account. That would be like adding sugar to the rice batter, and you will then get neiyappam instead of dosa or idli.
PS: Many will argue there is no urad dal in neiyappam. That is poetic licence.
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