Make 2024 Modi vs Priyanka and get me the popcorn

This Sunday something extraordinary happened. The entire counting day, I did not have a single drop of whiskey. You will be wondering if I had vodka or gin, but let me assure you I did not touch alcohol. And it helped me see the elections for what they are. So here are my takeaways, not coloured by any shades of the bottle.

Modi magic

For the first time since 2014, Narendra Modi was not the biggest factor in an election. Unlike earlier elections, we didn’t see planted reports in the media that claimed how Modi turned things around in the last one week with his magnificent oratory and spectacular roadshows. One big sign that even the BJP was cagey about putting the PM in the front. But seeing how things turned out, Modi won the elections for the BJP in two states - in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, where ED too probably did its bit with its election-eve raids and arrests. Madhya Pradesh was won by a cornered Shivraj Singh Chouhan.

The 3-0 sweep of Hindi heartland however has added further to the Modi aura. It will inspire BJP voters and workers and demotivate Congress workers. Invincible Modi is the branding that is getting traction.


Cong clueless in Madhya Pradesh

If Chhindwara was a state, then Kamal Nath would be its CM. The trouble is Chhindwara is not a state, and outside of Chhindwara, Kamal Nath doesn’t have much appeal. Kamal Nath has been around since 1975 when emergency was imposed. If he had to become a CM, he would have become one in the 50 years or so he has been in politics. The other leader Digvijaya Singh, became a CM in his 40s. He is keeping the seat warm for his son, possibly to make a serious bid for power in the next elections. In 2018, the Congress had all the regions covered with the Scindia-Digvijaya-Kamal Nath trio. But after the elections, the old guard smoked out Scindia or Scindia walked out for a bungalow and power in Delhi, whichever version you want to believe. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra was their best bet, and the punt failed.

Hindutva

2014 was a vote for Vikas, 2019 was a vote for Hindutva-plus, but 2024 will be a vote on governance. Many analysts will say the Congress lost the three states in the Hindi heartland because of Hindutva, because of Udhayanidhi Stalin’s comment on Sanatan Dharma. That is the easiest excuse to make. The Congress vote share in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh has remained roughly the same. No Hindus switched their votes from the Congress to punish the party and save the religion. In Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the vote share of other parties came down and the BJP was the beneficiary. Leaders like Kamal Nath, Bhupesh Baghel feared Hindutva so much, they got busy making schemes for gauraksha and gobar and lost the larger plot.

We should remember that Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, P.V. Narasimha Rao – all of them pandered to Hindu sentiments. Sonia Gandhi brought a kind of liberalism into politics which helped the BJP play the “Hindu khatre me” card. She also brought in the concept of rights-based governance in a society where people are used to mai-baap culture. Ten years later, the BJP has occupied the national party space, reducing the Congress to a few states.

Today the non-core Hindu voters of the BJP feel their religion is safe under Modi, they are voting for Modi because they think he is doing a great job. Now, what you think are failures of the Modi govt in matters of governance are being seen as good policy by these voters. Remember even deaths during second Covid wave and demonetization did not change the view of these voters despite suffering so much pain and loss.

Hindutva has run its course. It has saturated in many parts but will find some growth areas too. But if the BJP wins 2024 it will be because the voter likes Modi’s governance.

North-South divide

The North-South divide is real and has been there forever. Make no mistake, Hindutva has takers in South India too. At some point the BJP will open its account in Kerala and it could become the principal opposition in Telangana or Andhra Pradesh. Hindutva can help the BJP attain a critical mass, like in Karnataka, but the party will have to look beyond Hindutva to rule the southern states.

One reason is that people of these states have strong feelings about their culture. Any attempt to impose one shade of Hinduism will meet with stiff resistance from them.

The Congress, however, can’t give the North-South divide as a reason for their failings. Instead they should export the energy and enthusiasm shown by its cadres and leaders in Karnataka and Telangana to north India.

After all what is the use of contesting elections if you have already given up the fight? If that is the case Congress might as well shut shop and go home.

Caste census

The caste card remains the biggest antidote to Hindutva. Analysts will say it didn’t work in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. These states though were not affected by the caste politics in the Nineties though, why should they be now? Caste census is an issue for Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the original Mandal vs Mandir battleground. More than the Congress, it is an issue tailormade for parties like the SP and RJD.

Priyanka factor

Priyanka Gandhi Vadra remains the best communicator the Congress has. Rahul Gandhi can walk all that he wants, but he is unable to send his message across effectively. His image among many Congress sympathizers is that of a ‘nice boy not meant for politics’.

Unlike Rahul, whose every statement is distorted, his sister has a knack of effectively countering her rivals’ political attacks. Her punchy dialogues at election rallies in Karnataka have defanged the victim card played by Modi very often during elections. She merely asked, “How can a man who has been in power for so many years, flies superjets, come to you complaining about insults instead of listening to your troubles?”

Brand Priyanka is no match for Brand Modi, but it is the best Cong has today.

Modi is India, India is Modi

When Narendra Modi speaks in Parliament, which is rare, everyone listens. His fans, his critics, his trolls, pretty much everyone. And he never lets us down.

This week, the PM spoke his mind, wearing a jacket of recycled plastic according to his PR machinery, but evidently the man himself thought it was Teflon. The speech exuded such confidence.

There are two ways I listen to his speech. One, I read between the lines. Two, I do not read between the lines. Then, by now you all know, I employ the good old Sherlock Holmes principle - When you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. 

So when Modi said, “If Nehru is such a great man, why are his grandkids and great grand kids not using the Nehru surname”, many took it as another attempt to belittle the country’s first prime minister, an intellectual giant, the kind of who we rarely see. But not me. 

I thought and over-thought the remark in my head many times over. I dissected it with scalpel blade 15. And finally came to a conclusion.

Suppose Indira Priyadarshini had retained her father’s surname instead of adding her husband’s after marriage. Suppose Indira’s sons took their mother’s surname instead of their father’s. Too many suppositions, I know, but you must not lose track. Suppose their kids took their surname from their mothers instead of their father. It would have been a tremendous strike at the root of patriarchy coming straight from the First Family of India. Now the Leader’s statement starts making sense. Immense sense.

Not everything Modi said came coded in Greek. Most of it was plainspeak.

He said the UPA converted every opportunity into a scam. Isn’t that true? Even when there was no scam, Manmohan Singh’s partymen told us there is one, to polish the heir apparent’s resume, to present him as the hero who will set all things that are wrong with the UPA right. For some strange reason the heir refused to join the govt and clean up the mess, instead waiting for the elections. The voter had different ideas. 

The most controversial bits in Modi’s speeches came in two parts over two days.

“The country trusts me and not the abuses and accusations you throw at me.”

“Ek akela kitno pe bhaari pad raha hai.”

He is just being truthful.

If hours long queues to take money out of ATM could not unseat him, if thousands of deaths caused by oxygen shortage could not unseat his party in Uttar Pradesh, nothing else will. Definitely not a businessman out to make some quick buck. 

Nor a cross-country yatra to unite the country. For starters, how do you unite a country where the majority feels there are no divisions.

The likes of Mani Shankar Aiyar and Chidambaram and Jairam Ramesh will remind you how JP dethroned Indira and how VP Singh defeated Rajiv Gandhi.

There is a big difference.

Indira made an enemy of every Opposition leader. All of them ganged up with the common aim of toppling her and with personal ambitions of becoming PM.

Her son was no great politician and opposition had the self-belief – if Indira can be defeated, then Rajiv certainly can be.  

Modi has learnt from the mistakes of Indira, Rajiv and Manmohan.

One, don’t give opposition leaders a reason to gang up against him. So he will give Naveen Patnaik, Jagan Reddy, K Chandrasekhar Rao, Akhilesh Yadav, etc their free space at the state level. The opposition is perennially divided.

Two, rule with an iron fist when you have such a brutal majority. Rajiv suffered because VP Singh, right under his nose, turned against him, rather the PM allowed him to.  

Three, never let the public get even a whiff of a scam even if there is one. Ignore charges being leveled by the Opposition unlike Manmohan who would sack ministers and order investigations. Modi has one advantage. The fear factor. From the fourth estate to pretty much every estate, no one dare point a finger at him. 

Modi is bigger than the BJP. Modi is bigger than the RSS. The trouble is he knows it, though his modesty doesn’t let him say so openly.

 “Ek akela kitno pe bhaari pad raha hai.”

When Modi said that, thumping his Chappan Chaathi multiple times, his party colleagues in the ministry and Parliament, stood up to give him an ovation. As they did that, they saw something we didn’t on the TV, thanks to their privileged seats right next to the PM. They spotted the Halo.

To them, and sadly many more outside, Modi is India and India is Modi. 

Ek akela aadmi sab pe bhaari.

Post script : After all, the investors who put money in the group did so, not because India is a land of opportunities, but because of the promoters' proximity to the PM. 

Who will be the Angry Young Man of Indian politics?

India vs Bharat. It’s a political slogan but it’s truer than ever before. We must accept there are two Indias.

Just think. 

The only time I travel by train or bus is when I am in Kerala. 

When I need grocery or vegetables I book online. 

Most of us middle class rarely get to see Bharat or know its share of problems. 

The only time we do that is when we take an Uber or Ola cab and strike a conversation with the driver. Or when there is whitewash or construction work on at home. 

When such an opportunity presented itself recently, I decided to take up the most pressing issue these days. 

Why are Pushpa and KGF super-duper hits when Hindi films are tanking at the box office?

The cab driver was very clear. “Hindi films bekaar ho gaye hain. Dekho to south ke films dekho.”

He then gave me a tip, “If you happen to be down, just watch Pushpa or KGF. It will lift your mood.”

“Why not RRR,” I asked. 

“RRR bakwas hai, aap Pushpa aur KGF dekho.”

As I got out of the cab, he said, “Pushpa Part 2 will be better. Some new villain has come His name is Shekhawat. But Pushpa is a proud man. I fear he will die in the next part.”

The painters at my house concurred with the cab driver.

I acted on their advice and watched Pushpa and RRR and bits of KGF.

Pushpa is a kolamass film. So is KGF. Both have punch dialogues and action.

Now RRR is tricky. RRR is a patriotic film that ends with the protagonists becoming Ram and Bheem to finish off the British colonizers. Of the three films this one has better special effects. It is a raging hit among the middle class. Then why were the cab driver, carpenters and painters gushing over Pushpa and KGF more than RRR?

This became a hot topic in our weekend drinking session. 

After three large pegs, we started to see light. 

“Many Hindi films that have released over the last few months have also been patriotic films and turned out to be duds,” pointed out one. 

“We are being fed patriotism round the clock on news TV free of cost.  After this we are expected to pay to see more patriotism in the theatres,” explained another, “We want to forget our worries and enjoy a bit. Pushpa and KGF do that.” 

“There is more to Pushpa and KGF,” the wise one among the drinkers theorised, “Heroes in both films are taking on the establishment. They are the Angry Young Men of today.”

He then down another double large and extrapolated further, “There is anger in society. The question is who will channelize it.”

We then downed a couple more pegs and moved on to weightier issues like legalizing cannabis.  

Shane Warne – the Spinner With Hunter’s Instincts

(This is entirely written from memory, excuse the masala if any)

He would zero in on the prey slowly, patiently, stealthily, before delivering the killer blow at the least expected moment. Shane Warne was a spinner with hunter’s instincts.  

His dismissal of Sachin Tendulkar in a Test in Australia best illustrates the description. Delivery after delivery, he pitched leg breaks on the middle stump or off stump. Tendulkar would go on the front foot and leave it, watching the ball turn away from him safely.  Warne kept at it, it seemed, forever. Tendulkar did the same.  The cat and mouse game went on for some time. And then Warne bowled a flipper. It pitched on the middle stump and went straight. Tendulkar once again left the ball, expecting a leg break, only to be caught LBW.

Warne was a natural at mind games.

Last ball of the day. Pakistan’s Basit Ali at the crease. Warne calls the captain, changes the field, shuffles the players around. Quite pointless it would seem given that it is the last ball of the day. Basit only has one thing to do – that is not get out. Warne is about to start, but stops. He decides to bowl round the wicket. Again quite pointless given that it is the last ball of the day. And Basit decides to do what he has to do – come what may, don’t get out. In his mind, Basit has decided he will block the ball with his legs. He can’t get out LBW to a ball pitched outside the leg stump. He can’t get out giving a catch if he blocking the ball with his leg. Very simple, very logical, very clever, very doable. Warne comes, bowls into the rough patch, Basit moves his left leg but suspects it is not in line with the ball, so moves his leg again, in the meantime the ball has gone through his legs and hit the stumps.

That was Warne.

Watching him play, you felt the same excitement you got watching Malcom Marshall, Michael Holding, Curtly Ambrose, Wasim Akram, Waqar Younis, Dennis Lillee…. Warne was a spinner with fast bowler’s aggression.

When Warne is on the field, there is fear among the rivals, and expectancy among fans, that something is about to happen.

1999 - the World Cup Australia came back from behind to win. Some of the credit goes Warne’s inspiring pep talks. We saw flashes of that brilliant mind in the first IPL, when he led a mediocre Rajasthan Royals to a title win.

Shane Warne was the best captain Australia never had.

Everyone knows about the ball of the century. No need to retell that story. I don’t know about Gatting, but even now fans like us have not come to terms with that dismissal. How can one bowl over the wicket, hit the pitch outside the leg stump, and turn the ball enough to clip the bail on the offstump? That is perfection measured in nanometers. One degree lesser turn, the ball hits the bat, one degree more, it misses the stump. You can calculate the angle and height of the delivery with scale and protractor for hours but you can’t crack that one mate. Not for nothing was it called the ball of the century.

Warne was a true magician.

KPAC, the name is enough

I don’t know much about KPAC Lalitha except what I have read in the newspapers. 

I haven’t met her or spoken to her over the phone.

I don’t how she prepares for the roles she plays or the process she follows.

What I know is that what we get to see on the screen is brilliantly natural. So natural it seems it’s all happening in front of us in flesh and blood.

The tears, the laughter, the smirk, the mannerisms, everything looks so real.

As I mentioned, I don’t know much about KPAC. Then why should I write about her.

We grew up watching her. If we saw moms and grandmoms in Kaviyoor Ponnamma and Sukumary, KPAC was more an elder sister to us. You felt a warmth in her presence. Oh, the power of cinema!

When she died, we all felt that tinge of pain, like we lost someone close.

I don’t know much about KPAC, but how can I not say good bye to her?

Today in his tribute, Mohanlal mentions KPAC’s (the mother) narration of the tragic death of the heroine’s father at her own hands in the film Sanmanassullavarku Samadhanam. While we ordinary film lovers don’t know the trickery filmmakers play with flashbacks, what we know is we listened to KPAC living that moment, some in tears.

KPAC was a unique talent. If Sachin Tendulkar could play any delivery 10 different ways, KPAC could play the same role in a hundred different ways. That is why we never got bored with her.

If the best actor award went to the best actor instead of best heroes and heroines, KPAC would have won it every year, year after year.

That would seem a little exaggerated, but you get the drift.

Athu thanne.

The mystery of the hijab fight

This week we got to re-learn many things which we thought were things of the past which we needn’t worry about in this age and century. For instance the difference between a hijab, abaya, burqa, etc. These are things we worry about when we go to the Gulf. 

Here in India it never occurred to me to know which is what.

This week we saw teenage girls protesting on campuses to wear the hijab and teenage boys protesting to stop them from wearing it. Just writing that sentence made me laugh.

Headscarves among Muslim students are common in Kerala, and probably in other southern states. We won’t get to know why college authorities in Karnataka, one by one, banned it in classrooms.  We also won’t know why the girls chose to protest so vehemently. But both happened days before elections in Uttar Pradesh so naturally many are adding 2 and 2 to guess what may be the cause.

As a jasoos, one of the best in the business, I am trained to look at things differently. I dig deep to find all the possible reasons for an event before ruling out the impossible ones to settle on the most probable one, howsoever improbable it might sound to you.

The hijab fight in Karnataka is happening for a reason. All this is part of a larger game plan to bridge the North-South divide.

I am sure you all admit this North-South divide is real.

The divide is visible on all parameters - infant mortality rate, population ration, fertility rate, poverty, etc. Now there are three ways of bridging a divide. You can either lift North to South or lift both so that they meet midway or lift South to meet North.

Now lifting North to South’s level is a huge challenge that will take years. Because South didn’t reach where it is doing nothing. In the decades when rulers north of the Vindhyas were ensuring social and financial justice for their families and clans, their southern counterparts were doing all that plus a bit of development.

The other option is easily achievable.

For this you need to keep the citizens busy. Don’t give them a moment to think. Give them a bone every day to fight over.

So when a hijab ban is announced by a college in some corner of the country, a few students will fight to wear it, many will fight to stop them from wearing it, many more will fight to defend the girls, and many many more will fight to defend the boys.

And everyone likes a good fight.

Public intellectuals, who till yesterday lectured Muslim women on how the hijab and burqa are regressive, now tell us they wear it out of choice. To prove their point, a few will start wearing the burqa too, some will start observing karva chauth, some might start wearing the ghoonghat, some will start wearing sindoor and mangalsutra. All this to tell us these are choices they make.

We men wonder what the fuss was all these years.

The response the hijab fight got in Karnataka and other southern states shows the plan is on track.

The Leader is bridging the North-South divide and he is doing a good job of it.

Why does Modi do what he does ?

Every ruler wants to be remembered for something or the other when they die. There never was any selfless work. Those who we remember for ‘nishkaam karma’ fooled us into remembering them for that.

Jawaharlal Nehru is remembered for being the architect of democracy in India. And rightly so.

Most of my student life I spent abusing Nehru – the man who sowed seeds of dynasty. I blamed him for Chinese aggression, Kashmir dispute, price rise, unemployment, poverty, hunger, pretty much everything I didn’t like. I never read much about him, or for that matter anybody or anything, but for me he was a villain.

It took me seven years of Narendra Modi’s rule to realize Nehru’s greatness.

A few months ago I was at a temple festival where my drinking buddies, all of them bhakts, cornered me, telling me how Modi is being victimized by everyone. One versus 10 arguing about Modi’s policies, but still he is the victim.

I said, “All these years I abused Nehru, I could do so freely, no one ever threatened me. I do that now with Modi the chances are I will not escape without a sound thrashing.”

That is why Nehru is the architect of democracy in India. Without him, India could well have become a nut case like Pakistan.

Poor Lal Bahadur Shastri didn’t rule enough to leave a legacy.

India Gandhi will be remembered as the Iron Lady. The Wonder Woman who won a war with Pakistan and split that country into two. The only war since WW2 to have a clear victor.

Rajiv Gandhi, unfortunately, will not be remembered for much. He was dashing and handsome, but that pretty much sums up his term. He was unlucky not to have ruled the country for long to leave a legacy.

Narasimha Rao perhaps would have been happy surviving his full term. But he left a lasting legacy. The man who transformed India. He is the reason I have a decent job in Delhi despite being an utter flop in studies. One could argue there was no escaping liberalization, but had it come 5 or 10 years later, I would have spent my post-college days standing in queues outside the employment exchange.

Atal Bihari Vajpayee wanted to leave a grand legacy. He wanted to solve the Kashmir issue, but didn’t reach anywhere. So did Manmohan Singh, but he too failed after 10 years in power. While they will be remembered for the economic reforms, welfare schemes, nuke test and deals, will they feature in school history textbooks 20 years down the line? Highly unlikely.

Now where does Narendra Modi stand?

Often people ask why Modi does what he does?

To win elections, one might say, but that goes without saying. There is more to what he does.

The PM started by wanting to be a superhero of sports. A leader who got India its rightful place on the global stage. That has got him nowhere.

Like a good batsman, Modi studied the pitch and paced his innings. The construction of the Ram mandir, the removal Article 370 and the possible enactment of a Uniform Civil Code in his remaining term will ensure he is remembered as the architect of the Hindu Rashtra.

Modi’s place is assured in history textbooks in the decades to come.

For good or bad, he is up there with Nehru, Indira and Rao.

But that is not enough. Modi’s dil maange more.

This is where the rebuilding of New Delhi comes into the picture.

The Dilli we have been taught about has many faces – Indraprastha built by the Pandavas, Old Delhi built by the Mughals, New Delhi built by the British. Add to that the Modern Delhi being built by Modi.

Years from now, when my grandkids visit Delhi, the tour guide will tell them, “On your right is the Parliament, this is the central vista where the govt is run from, that is the national war memorial, there is an Amar Jawan Jyothi there in memory of fallen soldiers, look at this Netaji statue, etc etc… All this was built by Narendra Damodardas Modi.”

You may want to forget Modi, but Modi is here to be remembered.