Make 2024 Modi vs Priyanka and get me the popcorn

This Sunday something extraordinary happened. The entire counting day, I did not have a single drop of whiskey. You will be wondering if I had vodka or gin, but let me assure you I did not touch alcohol. And it helped me see the elections for what they are. So here are my takeaways, not coloured by any shades of the bottle.

Modi magic

For the first time since 2014, Narendra Modi was not the biggest factor in an election. Unlike earlier elections, we didn’t see planted reports in the media that claimed how Modi turned things around in the last one week with his magnificent oratory and spectacular roadshows. One big sign that even the BJP was cagey about putting the PM in the front. But seeing how things turned out, Modi won the elections for the BJP in two states - in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, where ED too probably did its bit with its election-eve raids and arrests. Madhya Pradesh was won by a cornered Shivraj Singh Chouhan.

The 3-0 sweep of Hindi heartland however has added further to the Modi aura. It will inspire BJP voters and workers and demotivate Congress workers. Invincible Modi is the branding that is getting traction.


Cong clueless in Madhya Pradesh

If Chhindwara was a state, then Kamal Nath would be its CM. The trouble is Chhindwara is not a state, and outside of Chhindwara, Kamal Nath doesn’t have much appeal. Kamal Nath has been around since 1975 when emergency was imposed. If he had to become a CM, he would have become one in the 50 years or so he has been in politics. The other leader Digvijaya Singh, became a CM in his 40s. He is keeping the seat warm for his son, possibly to make a serious bid for power in the next elections. In 2018, the Congress had all the regions covered with the Scindia-Digvijaya-Kamal Nath trio. But after the elections, the old guard smoked out Scindia or Scindia walked out for a bungalow and power in Delhi, whichever version you want to believe. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra was their best bet, and the punt failed.

Hindutva

2014 was a vote for Vikas, 2019 was a vote for Hindutva-plus, but 2024 will be a vote on governance. Many analysts will say the Congress lost the three states in the Hindi heartland because of Hindutva, because of Udhayanidhi Stalin’s comment on Sanatan Dharma. That is the easiest excuse to make. The Congress vote share in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh has remained roughly the same. No Hindus switched their votes from the Congress to punish the party and save the religion. In Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the vote share of other parties came down and the BJP was the beneficiary. Leaders like Kamal Nath, Bhupesh Baghel feared Hindutva so much, they got busy making schemes for gauraksha and gobar and lost the larger plot.

We should remember that Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, P.V. Narasimha Rao – all of them pandered to Hindu sentiments. Sonia Gandhi brought a kind of liberalism into politics which helped the BJP play the “Hindu khatre me” card. She also brought in the concept of rights-based governance in a society where people are used to mai-baap culture. Ten years later, the BJP has occupied the national party space, reducing the Congress to a few states.

Today the non-core Hindu voters of the BJP feel their religion is safe under Modi, they are voting for Modi because they think he is doing a great job. Now, what you think are failures of the Modi govt in matters of governance are being seen as good policy by these voters. Remember even deaths during second Covid wave and demonetization did not change the view of these voters despite suffering so much pain and loss.

Hindutva has run its course. It has saturated in many parts but will find some growth areas too. But if the BJP wins 2024 it will be because the voter likes Modi’s governance.

North-South divide

The North-South divide is real and has been there forever. Make no mistake, Hindutva has takers in South India too. At some point the BJP will open its account in Kerala and it could become the principal opposition in Telangana or Andhra Pradesh. Hindutva can help the BJP attain a critical mass, like in Karnataka, but the party will have to look beyond Hindutva to rule the southern states.

One reason is that people of these states have strong feelings about their culture. Any attempt to impose one shade of Hinduism will meet with stiff resistance from them.

The Congress, however, can’t give the North-South divide as a reason for their failings. Instead they should export the energy and enthusiasm shown by its cadres and leaders in Karnataka and Telangana to north India.

After all what is the use of contesting elections if you have already given up the fight? If that is the case Congress might as well shut shop and go home.

Caste census

The caste card remains the biggest antidote to Hindutva. Analysts will say it didn’t work in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. These states though were not affected by the caste politics in the Nineties though, why should they be now? Caste census is an issue for Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the original Mandal vs Mandir battleground. More than the Congress, it is an issue tailormade for parties like the SP and RJD.

Priyanka factor

Priyanka Gandhi Vadra remains the best communicator the Congress has. Rahul Gandhi can walk all that he wants, but he is unable to send his message across effectively. His image among many Congress sympathizers is that of a ‘nice boy not meant for politics’.

Unlike Rahul, whose every statement is distorted, his sister has a knack of effectively countering her rivals’ political attacks. Her punchy dialogues at election rallies in Karnataka have defanged the victim card played by Modi very often during elections. She merely asked, “How can a man who has been in power for so many years, flies superjets, come to you complaining about insults instead of listening to your troubles?”

Brand Priyanka is no match for Brand Modi, but it is the best Cong has today.

Why does Modi do what he does ?

Every ruler wants to be remembered for something or the other when they die. There never was any selfless work. Those who we remember for ‘nishkaam karma’ fooled us into remembering them for that.

Jawaharlal Nehru is remembered for being the architect of democracy in India. And rightly so.

Most of my student life I spent abusing Nehru – the man who sowed seeds of dynasty. I blamed him for Chinese aggression, Kashmir dispute, price rise, unemployment, poverty, hunger, pretty much everything I didn’t like. I never read much about him, or for that matter anybody or anything, but for me he was a villain.

It took me seven years of Narendra Modi’s rule to realize Nehru’s greatness.

A few months ago I was at a temple festival where my drinking buddies, all of them bhakts, cornered me, telling me how Modi is being victimized by everyone. One versus 10 arguing about Modi’s policies, but still he is the victim.

I said, “All these years I abused Nehru, I could do so freely, no one ever threatened me. I do that now with Modi the chances are I will not escape without a sound thrashing.”

That is why Nehru is the architect of democracy in India. Without him, India could well have become a nut case like Pakistan.

Poor Lal Bahadur Shastri didn’t rule enough to leave a legacy.

India Gandhi will be remembered as the Iron Lady. The Wonder Woman who won a war with Pakistan and split that country into two. The only war since WW2 to have a clear victor.

Rajiv Gandhi, unfortunately, will not be remembered for much. He was dashing and handsome, but that pretty much sums up his term. He was unlucky not to have ruled the country for long to leave a legacy.

Narasimha Rao perhaps would have been happy surviving his full term. But he left a lasting legacy. The man who transformed India. He is the reason I have a decent job in Delhi despite being an utter flop in studies. One could argue there was no escaping liberalization, but had it come 5 or 10 years later, I would have spent my post-college days standing in queues outside the employment exchange.

Atal Bihari Vajpayee wanted to leave a grand legacy. He wanted to solve the Kashmir issue, but didn’t reach anywhere. So did Manmohan Singh, but he too failed after 10 years in power. While they will be remembered for the economic reforms, welfare schemes, nuke test and deals, will they feature in school history textbooks 20 years down the line? Highly unlikely.

Now where does Narendra Modi stand?

Often people ask why Modi does what he does?

To win elections, one might say, but that goes without saying. There is more to what he does.

The PM started by wanting to be a superhero of sports. A leader who got India its rightful place on the global stage. That has got him nowhere.

Like a good batsman, Modi studied the pitch and paced his innings. The construction of the Ram mandir, the removal Article 370 and the possible enactment of a Uniform Civil Code in his remaining term will ensure he is remembered as the architect of the Hindu Rashtra.

Modi’s place is assured in history textbooks in the decades to come.

For good or bad, he is up there with Nehru, Indira and Rao.

But that is not enough. Modi’s dil maange more.

This is where the rebuilding of New Delhi comes into the picture.

The Dilli we have been taught about has many faces – Indraprastha built by the Pandavas, Old Delhi built by the Mughals, New Delhi built by the British. Add to that the Modern Delhi being built by Modi.

Years from now, when my grandkids visit Delhi, the tour guide will tell them, “On your right is the Parliament, this is the central vista where the govt is run from, that is the national war memorial, there is an Amar Jawan Jyothi there in memory of fallen soldiers, look at this Netaji statue, etc etc… All this was built by Narendra Damodardas Modi.”

You may want to forget Modi, but Modi is here to be remembered.

When Khiladi interviewed Jasoos Kutty

Modi is Douglas Jardine and Bradman rolled into one

Elections are to Narendra Modi what runs were to Sir Donald Bradman. Except, cricket was a gentleman’s game then, and there was never anything gentlemanly about politics.

Modi will do anything to win elections. He will stand tall one second, he will stoop low the next.

The airstrike on Balakot marked a big shift in India’s strategy in the fight against terror and its chief sponsor Pakistan. For the first time Indian Air Force jets crossed the line of control since 1971. But for the BJP, it wasn’t good enough. They needed to a put number to the kill, a number good enough for their 56 chaathi leader. So they said 300 terrorists killed, though the govt officially never mentioned it.

That is Modi’s style. Now endless memes and fake news videos will be circulated in the most effective election tools of our age, that is Whatsapp and Facebook.
And people generally believe whatever they get on whatsapp. 2019 could well be an election which will be decided by fake news and innuendos.

That much is evident from Modi’s statements since the air raid. He is already asking people ‘are you with us or them’, bracketing the opposition with terrorists. No one has done this before, probably no one will do later.

The opposition’s challenge is to find a leader who can pay Modi back in the same coin. Someone who can be as mean, as arrogant, as angry, and at times as witty as Modi. And that somebody must speak Hindi. Hindi heartland is where the BJP needs to be defeated if opposition fancies any chance of winning power.

What are their options then?

Nitish Kumar was a good bet, but he chose to sleep with the enemy.

Lalu Yadav could have done it, but he is in jail.

Akhilesh Yadav has the ability, but his popularity is restricted to UP.

Kanhaiya Kumar can do it, but he is in the wrong party, and lacks stature.

You are left with Rahul Gandhi.

Rahul has many strengths. He appears sincere, has a boyish charm. He has his weaknesses too. He can’t be mean even if he wanted to. He can’t be witty, that doesn’t come naturally to him.

They are left with one person who could do the job. Priyanka Vadra. For some strange reason the Congress has restricted her to some 35 seats in UP, where they in any case don’t stand a chance to win much. Any gain the Congress makes there will only weaken the SP-BSP and help the BJP. The party is saving its brahmastra for bigger battles ahead which makes one wonder what can be a bigger fight than the Lok Sabha election.

Like I said, votes are to Modi, what runs were to Bradman.

Modi however is more than that. He doesn’t play by the rules. Modi wants to make the 2019 elections presidential. He is telling the voter, it is either me or that dimwit Rahul. To hammer this message, he can go to any extent. He will call Rahul mentally retarded, that is what he meant when he called his rival dyslexic, pardon his ignorance and insensitivity. He will call Rahul anti-national, don’t be surprised if one of these days he calls him a terrorist as well.

Whatsapp and social media have made politics as thrilling as a Twenty20 match. And just like we appreciate Virat Kohli giving it back to the Aussies, society as a whole, especially middle class, like the crass sledging Modi and his teammates indulge in.

Modi is ready to play dirty to win a match, whether it is underarm bowling or bodyline bowling. Modi is Douglas Jardine and Bradman rolled into one. Now that is a combo hard to match, tough to beat.

If Hedgewar was a great son of Mother India, who was Gandhi?

Last week I was having beer with a few friends. At some point we decided to go to Haridwar. I was bored of drinking at home, wanted to drink in a new setting. Of course I wanted to take a dip in Ganga to absolve myself of all sins that I had committed till then, so that I could start committing new sins.

The point is there was a purpose to that trip. We do things purposefully, even if we don’t acknowledge it. Now what inspired former president Pranab Mukherjee to fly down to Nagpur and attend the RSS convocation ceremony?

There could be many reasons.

Mukherjee says dialogue is the essence of democracy. One should keep the dialogue on. So he wants to have a dialogue with an organisation which couldn’t tolerate a nuanced homage to Muhammed Ali Jinnah by L.K. Advani in Pakistan.

Advani had said, “His (Jinnah’s) address to the Constituent Assembly of Pakistan on August 11, 1947, is really a classic, a forceful espousal of a secular state in which, while every citizen would be free to practise his own religion, the state shall make no distinction between one citizen and another on grounds of faith.”

The RSS cracked down on Advani and later Jaswant Singh who wrote a book on Jinnah. This is their level of intolerance and Mukherjee wants us to believe he wanted to have a dialogue with the RSS.

Mukherjee probably rates his oratorical skills very highly. He may have thought he can reform, if not the Sangh leadership, the fresh graduates and make them give up their Hindu rashtra dreams. He is probably reassured by the successes he had while playing the role of mediator for the UPA. He had handled Anna Hazare so well his prodigy ended up becoming the CM; he neutralised Ramdev, who became a business tycoon, if not for Pranab the yoga guru could have become the UP CM for all you know.

Don’t let the Pranabda fan club in the media mislead you. Mukherjee didn’t go to the lion’s den and take the bull by its horns.

The speech in itself was mediocre. It could have been any of the speeches he made as President of India after Narendra Modi came to power. He just toned it down a bit, edited out references to gau raksha, lynchings, bigotry. In its place he copied a few lines from his other speeches about the 5,000 year old Indian civilisation, the sone ki chidiya that India was, the glory of Nalanda, all that are music to RSS ears. A Sangh spokesperson on TV channels said as much -- he said pretty much what we say. 

Mukherjee quoted Jawahar Lal Nehru from his book Discovery of India, but made only a passing reference to Gandhi. He said, “As Gandhiji explained Indian nationalism was not exclusive, nor aggressive, nor destructive.” Just one line on the Father of the Nation who spearheaded a freedom struggle that was boycotted by the RSS. Gandhi who lost his life to the ideology of RSS almost became a footnote in his speech, though it appeared in the middle somewhere.

The real news came a few hours before the speech. From the memorial of RSS founder K.B. Hedgewar. There Mukherjee noted in the visitors’ log, “Today I came here to pay my respect and homage to a great son of Mother India.” Anyone who reads it would think Hedgewar was some big hero who was denied his due by a repressionist regime for decades.

You could argue there is no need to read much into it. It was just an old man writing something about a dead man because he had to do write something. Journalists quoted ‘sources close to him’ as saying “What does one say of a dead man, especially who has been the Organising Committee Chairman of the AICC Session in 1920?”

Anything. He could have written anything. Mukherjee made a career out of writing convoluted, un-understandable resolutions with sentences so long, one would lose count and sight of the commas and semicolons. Anything Mukherjee writes, there is a method to it.

Arun Shourie very famously described the Modi govt as UPA + cow. Mukherjee’s speech was a bit like that -- RSS minus the bigotry.
So what was the purpose behind the speech?

The only good defence in Mukherjee’s favour I can think of is - he was bored, visited RSS headquarters for some sightseeing and went back after a guided tour.

In describing Hedgewar as a great son of Mother India, Mukherjee came off as an opportunist,  a backstabber and coward.