Make 2024 Modi vs Priyanka and get me the popcorn

This Sunday something extraordinary happened. The entire counting day, I did not have a single drop of whiskey. You will be wondering if I had vodka or gin, but let me assure you I did not touch alcohol. And it helped me see the elections for what they are. So here are my takeaways, not coloured by any shades of the bottle.

Modi magic

For the first time since 2014, Narendra Modi was not the biggest factor in an election. Unlike earlier elections, we didn’t see planted reports in the media that claimed how Modi turned things around in the last one week with his magnificent oratory and spectacular roadshows. One big sign that even the BJP was cagey about putting the PM in the front. But seeing how things turned out, Modi won the elections for the BJP in two states - in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, where ED too probably did its bit with its election-eve raids and arrests. Madhya Pradesh was won by a cornered Shivraj Singh Chouhan.

The 3-0 sweep of Hindi heartland however has added further to the Modi aura. It will inspire BJP voters and workers and demotivate Congress workers. Invincible Modi is the branding that is getting traction.


Cong clueless in Madhya Pradesh

If Chhindwara was a state, then Kamal Nath would be its CM. The trouble is Chhindwara is not a state, and outside of Chhindwara, Kamal Nath doesn’t have much appeal. Kamal Nath has been around since 1975 when emergency was imposed. If he had to become a CM, he would have become one in the 50 years or so he has been in politics. The other leader Digvijaya Singh, became a CM in his 40s. He is keeping the seat warm for his son, possibly to make a serious bid for power in the next elections. In 2018, the Congress had all the regions covered with the Scindia-Digvijaya-Kamal Nath trio. But after the elections, the old guard smoked out Scindia or Scindia walked out for a bungalow and power in Delhi, whichever version you want to believe. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra was their best bet, and the punt failed.

Hindutva

2014 was a vote for Vikas, 2019 was a vote for Hindutva-plus, but 2024 will be a vote on governance. Many analysts will say the Congress lost the three states in the Hindi heartland because of Hindutva, because of Udhayanidhi Stalin’s comment on Sanatan Dharma. That is the easiest excuse to make. The Congress vote share in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh has remained roughly the same. No Hindus switched their votes from the Congress to punish the party and save the religion. In Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the vote share of other parties came down and the BJP was the beneficiary. Leaders like Kamal Nath, Bhupesh Baghel feared Hindutva so much, they got busy making schemes for gauraksha and gobar and lost the larger plot.

We should remember that Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, P.V. Narasimha Rao – all of them pandered to Hindu sentiments. Sonia Gandhi brought a kind of liberalism into politics which helped the BJP play the “Hindu khatre me” card. She also brought in the concept of rights-based governance in a society where people are used to mai-baap culture. Ten years later, the BJP has occupied the national party space, reducing the Congress to a few states.

Today the non-core Hindu voters of the BJP feel their religion is safe under Modi, they are voting for Modi because they think he is doing a great job. Now, what you think are failures of the Modi govt in matters of governance are being seen as good policy by these voters. Remember even deaths during second Covid wave and demonetization did not change the view of these voters despite suffering so much pain and loss.

Hindutva has run its course. It has saturated in many parts but will find some growth areas too. But if the BJP wins 2024 it will be because the voter likes Modi’s governance.

North-South divide

The North-South divide is real and has been there forever. Make no mistake, Hindutva has takers in South India too. At some point the BJP will open its account in Kerala and it could become the principal opposition in Telangana or Andhra Pradesh. Hindutva can help the BJP attain a critical mass, like in Karnataka, but the party will have to look beyond Hindutva to rule the southern states.

One reason is that people of these states have strong feelings about their culture. Any attempt to impose one shade of Hinduism will meet with stiff resistance from them.

The Congress, however, can’t give the North-South divide as a reason for their failings. Instead they should export the energy and enthusiasm shown by its cadres and leaders in Karnataka and Telangana to north India.

After all what is the use of contesting elections if you have already given up the fight? If that is the case Congress might as well shut shop and go home.

Caste census

The caste card remains the biggest antidote to Hindutva. Analysts will say it didn’t work in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. These states though were not affected by the caste politics in the Nineties though, why should they be now? Caste census is an issue for Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the original Mandal vs Mandir battleground. More than the Congress, it is an issue tailormade for parties like the SP and RJD.

Priyanka factor

Priyanka Gandhi Vadra remains the best communicator the Congress has. Rahul Gandhi can walk all that he wants, but he is unable to send his message across effectively. His image among many Congress sympathizers is that of a ‘nice boy not meant for politics’.

Unlike Rahul, whose every statement is distorted, his sister has a knack of effectively countering her rivals’ political attacks. Her punchy dialogues at election rallies in Karnataka have defanged the victim card played by Modi very often during elections. She merely asked, “How can a man who has been in power for so many years, flies superjets, come to you complaining about insults instead of listening to your troubles?”

Brand Priyanka is no match for Brand Modi, but it is the best Cong has today.

Only Rahul can stop Modi, but will he?

Even during my toughest missions in the remotest areas hunting down enemies, even when I am busy seducing or being seduced by pretty spies and operatives of all kinds, even when I am getting drunk on arrack and rum, even when I am experimenting with truth, half truths and innocent lies… I don’t take my eyes off my primary objective – that is world peace. But that is not the case with Rahul Gandhi.

Rahul is a nice chap. A handsome old young man with no known vices and quite a tharavadi. In short,  sundar and susheel. Qualities any parent would seek when looking for a match for their daughter.  Now the problem is he is not seeking a bride but looking for votes, enough of them to unseat Narendra Modi in 2024 or even 2028.

Nothing he has done till now gives his fans the confidence he will be able to do it.

Look at this. Rahul goes to Bihar where Tejashwi is working up huge crowds with his promise of 10 lakh govt jobs and what does he do? He starts talking about demonetization. Agreed note ban was a blunder of gigantic proportions, but people have moved on, and don’t seem to mind the trouble DeMo brought on them. 

For Rahul, somewhere the fight has become personal.

He probably hates the PM who has slapped cases against the entire Gandhi family and bad-mouths the dynasty starting from Jawaharlal Nehru. Naturally so.  But he was not out there seeking votes to settle a personal score.

He probably thinks 'how does that dumbo rule the country while I sit in the opposition', but then the BJP says Rahul is the dumbo, and unfortunately for Rahul, the voter seems to share that view.

To be a politician you have to have two necessary qualities. One, he or she must be a good communicator. Rahul is not. Two, he or she has to be a cunning backroom player. 

If the BJP can build a Hindu umbrella alliance, who is stopping the Congress from a forming a Brahmin-Dalit-Muslim tieup in let us say, Uttar Pradesh.

If BJP can split votes by fielding Asaduddin Owaisi, as the Congress claims, what is stopping the Congress doing something similar to the BJP.

Rahul is neither a communicator nor a cunning operator.

Like I have written in a post earlier, a Priyanka or a Rahul won’t win the elections for the Congress just because they are a Gandhi. We have moved on from the dynasty and it’s time the party and the family realized that.

I don’t know if Priyanka can revive the party, but from the 11 years we have seen of Rahul, we can safely conclude he can’t.

Every time he joins a protest or supports a cause, the BJP is able to dodge the bullet.

For example the current farmer protests have cornered the Narendra Modi govt and what stands out is Rahul’s absence.

Rahul Gandhi must focus on the objective.

If the aim is to remove Narendra Modi from the throne, then Rahul must abdicate and let someone else lead the Congress into the next election.

If the aim is to be the chocolate boy of Indian politics, he has won the title hands down. It’s time he let someone else take a shot at that title too.

Modi is Douglas Jardine and Bradman rolled into one

Elections are to Narendra Modi what runs were to Sir Donald Bradman. Except, cricket was a gentleman’s game then, and there was never anything gentlemanly about politics.

Modi will do anything to win elections. He will stand tall one second, he will stoop low the next.

The airstrike on Balakot marked a big shift in India’s strategy in the fight against terror and its chief sponsor Pakistan. For the first time Indian Air Force jets crossed the line of control since 1971. But for the BJP, it wasn’t good enough. They needed to a put number to the kill, a number good enough for their 56 chaathi leader. So they said 300 terrorists killed, though the govt officially never mentioned it.

That is Modi’s style. Now endless memes and fake news videos will be circulated in the most effective election tools of our age, that is Whatsapp and Facebook.
And people generally believe whatever they get on whatsapp. 2019 could well be an election which will be decided by fake news and innuendos.

That much is evident from Modi’s statements since the air raid. He is already asking people ‘are you with us or them’, bracketing the opposition with terrorists. No one has done this before, probably no one will do later.

The opposition’s challenge is to find a leader who can pay Modi back in the same coin. Someone who can be as mean, as arrogant, as angry, and at times as witty as Modi. And that somebody must speak Hindi. Hindi heartland is where the BJP needs to be defeated if opposition fancies any chance of winning power.

What are their options then?

Nitish Kumar was a good bet, but he chose to sleep with the enemy.

Lalu Yadav could have done it, but he is in jail.

Akhilesh Yadav has the ability, but his popularity is restricted to UP.

Kanhaiya Kumar can do it, but he is in the wrong party, and lacks stature.

You are left with Rahul Gandhi.

Rahul has many strengths. He appears sincere, has a boyish charm. He has his weaknesses too. He can’t be mean even if he wanted to. He can’t be witty, that doesn’t come naturally to him.

They are left with one person who could do the job. Priyanka Vadra. For some strange reason the Congress has restricted her to some 35 seats in UP, where they in any case don’t stand a chance to win much. Any gain the Congress makes there will only weaken the SP-BSP and help the BJP. The party is saving its brahmastra for bigger battles ahead which makes one wonder what can be a bigger fight than the Lok Sabha election.

Like I said, votes are to Modi, what runs were to Bradman.

Modi however is more than that. He doesn’t play by the rules. Modi wants to make the 2019 elections presidential. He is telling the voter, it is either me or that dimwit Rahul. To hammer this message, he can go to any extent. He will call Rahul mentally retarded, that is what he meant when he called his rival dyslexic, pardon his ignorance and insensitivity. He will call Rahul anti-national, don’t be surprised if one of these days he calls him a terrorist as well.

Whatsapp and social media have made politics as thrilling as a Twenty20 match. And just like we appreciate Virat Kohli giving it back to the Aussies, society as a whole, especially middle class, like the crass sledging Modi and his teammates indulge in.

Modi is ready to play dirty to win a match, whether it is underarm bowling or bodyline bowling. Modi is Douglas Jardine and Bradman rolled into one. Now that is a combo hard to match, tough to beat.

Why can’t Rahul Gandhi become the PM?

Rahul Gandhi has said he will be the Prime Minister if the Congress is the largest party. Quite a lot of people are surprised by this admission. Especially the media.

I don’t know why.

What did you expect? That he does all the hard work, run from temple to temple, visit churches and masjids in between, and then if the Congress wins the elections, anoint somebody else as the PM.

Yes, he and his mom have done it in the past. He could have become the PM anytime he wanted between 2004 and 2014. Manmohan Singh did everything, other than beg, to make him a minister in the Cabinet.

The guy has decided ‘not any more’. If he wins the elections he will be the PM. And why not?

Because he is a Pappu?

If he was ridiculed as Pappu earlier, today the word is looked upon as ‘cute’, especially since a name called Feku gained currency.

Because he doesn’t have the brains?

We are not aware if he is capable of any policy making. But there is one guarantee, he won’t do a demonetisation. He qualifies on that one count.

Because he will be dependent on people like Sam Pitroda?

It is always better to have good and informed advisors. Hopefully his kitchen cabinet won’t be quack economists, babas & swamis.

Because he is not 56 chhati?

He is a regular at the gym and may have a four-pack, if that helps.

Because he is not a fakir with a jhola?

Rahul has shown his kurta pockets have holes in them. You can’t be more fakir than that.

Because he is a Gandhi?

If a doctor's son can become a doctor, an engineer's son can become an engineer, a scavenger's son must become a scavenger, a Gandhi's son can become a PM. Anyway, it's not his fault Modi and Vajpayee aren’t married.

There is only one reason why Rahul Gandhi can’t become the PM.

Because he doesn’t have the numbers. Once he has them, it's his job to take.

5 lessons for Rahul Gandhi from Gujarat elections

Play according to pitch
Winning an election is like playing a Test match. You have to read the pitch correctly. In Gujarat Rahul Gandhi read the pitch correct. In a state where 90% of the population is Hindu, in a state which is an advertisement for Hindutva, in a state that swears by the Gujarat model, in a state where Muslims have been reduced to political irrelevance, soft Hindutva was the right and only option. Rahul did what needed to be done, he lost the plot in the slog overs.

Never go on the defensive 
Those days when batsmen grafted runs and battled to save a Test are over. Most elections in the recent past have thrown up a clear winner. So playing for a draw is not an option. The fight for Gujarat began well for the Congress. Rahul raised questions about business dealings of Amit Shah’s son, but later he lost steam. Give the voter a talking point every now and then.


Fight Bodyline with Bodyline
Narendra Modi and Amit Shah are the Douglas Jardine of Indian politics. There is no limit they won’t cross to win an election. In the final stages of the campaign when PM Narendra Modi accused the Congress of conspiring with Pakistan to win Gujarat elections, Rahul Gandhi and company went numb. They had no clue how to deal with the beamers. Against such hostile attacks, inane comments like ‘hum pyaar ki boli bolenge’ don’t work. Having been fed steroids for a long while, people of Gujarat , or for that matter India, are not going to settle for a cup of coffee. So accuse Modi of doing something nastier, the Indian voter may not fall for it, but they enjoy this kind of mud-slinging. If not that, Rahul could have said something like, ‘Modi went to Pakistan uninvited and gatecrashed a wedding, if he wanted a hara bara kebab, we could have got them for him from a dhaba here (make sure you don’t say Karim’s). You get the idea.

Underarm bowling is fair
In a match there are many things a captain may not want to do but gets his players to do it. Outsource such work to state leadership, they know the pitch better than you, let them bat freely. Elections are about divisions, caste divide vs Hindu-Muslim divide etc. In Karnataka, Siddaramaiah has his own fringe army - the Kannada activists - to fight the parivar fringe. The ban on Sunny Leone for instance. Even before the likes of Sri Ram Sene could raise an issue, the Kannada activists entered the stage and stole the show. They even insisted Sunny wear a saree. It couldn’t have gotten better. Please don’t spoil it by reining in Sidda anna.

Migrate to cities
Politics of 2 rotis a day doesn’t work anymore. India is rapidly urbanising, people are shifting from farming to other activities, nobody can win power by not winning the urban votes. Dump garibi hatao, coin a new slogan. Ghar ghar, ek car, or something more materialistic and aspirational. No, free pastas and pizzas through PDS won’t do.

Here is raising a toast to Modi and Rahul. Keep us entertained.

After Aiyar's 'neech' remark, Modi alleges Cong-Pak nexus

Jasoos Kutty and the mystery of Gau Raksha

I usually don’t reveal any State secrets. But this one the world needs to know. I won’t reveal the names of the characters in national interest, but narrate the rest of the events as truthfully as I can.

There are two groups of scientists who are working on something that will shape the world we are living in in the coming years. You might have read it in newspapers, but for those who don’t read newspapers and don’t watch TV channels, here is a Dummy’s Guide. No, I am not talking about the Aryan invasion theory, this one is much much more important. Climate change.

As I had written in a post earlier, a group of scientists and propagandists are working on highlighting the bad effects of eating beef – both health-wise and spiritually – so that consumption of beef comes down, cutting down carbon emissions that eat into the all important ozone layer. With this, India would meet a significant portion of its emission target.

But there is a world out there which is refusing to give up beef. Like the Chinese, the Americans, the Europeans, the Arabs, Donald Trump… They just a give a damn about climate change. Now beef consumption is not the only thing that increases emissions. Cow farts do too. So this group of scientists is working on making cattle feed that reduces cow farts. Now you beef eaters don’t tell me you eat beef to reduce farts and all. I don’t buy that argument.

Unknown to these two groups, a third party has also gotten involved. North Korea. It all started with a whatsapp forward of a Malayalee RSS worker explaining the uses of cow dung and cow urine. It is a well-known fact that there is a Malayalee in every corner of the world. Neil Armstrong, Tenzing Norgay and Misbah-ul Haq have already attested to the fact. A Malayalee tea shop owner in Pyongyang received the forward and the North Korean intelligence got wind of it. Of particular interest to them was the bit that said cow dung has weapons grade plutonium and that cow urine and dung can withstand nuclear explosions.

A classic case of killing two birds with one bullet. If Pyongyang can lay hands on these research papers they can meet their demand for plutonium without any help from China or Pakistan. More troubling still is the possibility of building a nuclear shield with cow dung and urine. Such a low-cost invention will sink the millions of dollars invested by not just Koreans but also other powers in building atom bombs. What a waste.

So the major spy agencies of the world -- CIA, MI6, Mossad, KGB’s step son FSB, Mossad and RAW -- came together to work out a plan. Pakistan’s ISI and Chinese intelligence were not invited as it was feared they would tip off the Koreans. As these agencies are facing tremendous funds crunch, it was decided to outsource the job to RAW. The Indian spies were told to make a presentation and I was hired as a consultant by the CIA in view of RAW’s habit of overstating things.

This is how the presentation went.

Mission: Elimination of Suspect X

Option 1: Malappuram kathi/knife

Strengths

• Oldest and simplest weapon
• Easy to acquire, tough to trace
• Cheapest option, only flight and service charges apply

Risks

• Can’t underestimate Korean scientists, they might know karate
• Things could get messy in the event of a scuffle
• If DNA evidence of assassin is left behind, cost escalates 

Option 2: Transistor bomb

Strengths

• Simple and effective
• Can be activated by remote

Risks

• Transistors out of fashion, Koreans might not pick an abandoned radio
• Worse they might sell it to an antique collector, then we have a ticking transistor bomb

Option 3: Letter bomb
Strengths

• Don’t quite know, will be using it for the first time

Risks

• A nosy receptionist might open the letter

Option 4: Mobile phone bomb
Strengths

• Can be easily placed near the scientist
• Can be triggered by a phone call

Risks

• Call drops normal in India, entire operation fails

Option 5: Cyanide poisoning
Strengths

• Our speciality, long experience in it
• Can be easily mixed in the scientist’s butter chicken
• Can spike scientist’s Old Monk and Dal Makhani too, all bases covered

Risks

• The oil and spices in butter chicken could dilute the cyanide

Option 6: Plutonium poisoning
Strengths

• 100% result assured

Risks

• Plutonium not readily available, where can we steal it from?
• Agents not used to this, need special training abroad

**********************************

After the RAW delegation made its presentation, I was called in separately for my opinion.

“Friends, they are unreliable in these kind of operations. So far they have not been able to kill even Dawood Ibrahim,” I did some plainspeak. This was appreciated by the foreign spy chiefs.

“So what do you say,” asked the MI6 chief, “Do we need to send some of our guys.”

“There is an easier and cost-effective method. I can get the work done for half the price,” I said, sipping my Martini.

“We trust you, it shouldn’t be traced back to us, the payment will be routed to your account in Cayman Islands.”

“Consider it done I said.”

After the spy chiefs left, I dialled +91********** and to be doubly sure, whatsapped the details too.

The next day the newspapers reported a foreign national was lynched by a mob that suspected him of eating beef. The police had recovered large amounts of cow dung and urine from the victim.

#BharatMataKiJai