Five reasons why Modi guillotined Parliament

Poor Narendra Modi is being criticised by every Tom, Dick and Nidhi Razdan (there is no Barkha Dutt on TV to do that) for using guillotine to clear grants. Yes, budget was passed without any debate. So what? This when you people have no problems with Rahul Gandhi taking leave without applying on the prescribed form. What I mean to say is India is like that. If you are still not convinced, let me tell you this: Modiji had his reasons for applying the guillotine, and very strong ones too. Here are they:

1. A discussion on budget is in any case an exercise in futility. Though most of our MPs are graduates and post-graduates, they are products of our education system, they can hardly tell between a surplus budget and deficit budget. So two days of debate on budget is 18 hours wasted, sometimes they even debate late into midnight without knowing why or what they are doing.

2. It has come to govt’s note that viewership is the highest among chartered accountants and auditors when the budget is being discussed. In the 18 hours or so of the debate, there will be one wise mind who will pick holes in the taxation system, which we may miss in our sleep, but these cunning fellows will take note of and misuse them. The scrapping of budget debate is in fact a crackdown on corruption. There will be no more NiMo scams.

3. Everyday when Parliament shuts down, the govt ensures the lights and microphones are immediately switched off, thereby earning valuable carbon credit. The cut in power usage and noise pollution is serious crackdown on climate change. This is the second biggest measure taken by the govt in this regard, the first of course is sending gau rakshaks after beef eaters.

4. Often the Modi govt is criticised for not pursuing welfare schemes. Not anymore. Parliament has implemented a strong system of mid-day meals. Not just MPs and staff, even journalists who bunk work promptly come in the afternoon to have nutritious kanjiyum payarum. This way Modiji ensures MPs don’t drop out midway.

5. Modiji is a doer not a talker. He doesn’t waste time discussing issues, there will only be naysayers. Most of his decisions are taken on the spur of the moment. He is a decisive leader. Have you already forgotten demonetisation? Discussions are equal to delay. If you still don’t believe me, watch Yes Minister, you will know.   

Then why do we have parliament, why not shut it down, you may ask.

Silly question. If there is no Parliament, there will be no elections, then how will Modiji become Prime Minister? What do you think Modiji is, a dictator? Nah, no way, never.

Stop gloating, Modi can still win this

(I have watched hours of election analysis and prepared this brief report for my clients so that they don’t waste their time watching TV news. They can rest assured and watch Netflix)  

Preparing batter for dosa and idli is an expert task. If you want idli, you add a little more urad dal. It’s about getting the right mix.

Elections in Uttar Pradesh are a bit like that. The trick is in getting the caste combination right. So an SP-BSP combo is unbeatable. Yes, at times, on very rare occasions, a leader could break the caste barriers. It happened in 2014, but the shine is gone. People of Uttar Pradesh have probably seen through the jumlas.

Uttar Pradesh can make or break the BJP in 2019. It gifted Narendra Modi 73 seats last time, and every seat it loses, it needs to win somewhere else -- from Northeast or Odisha or Bengal or Kerala or Tamil Nadu or wherever.

So these bypolls are not a headache for Modi. These were in fact warmup games. Now he knows his weaknesses, and, most importantly, has finished off one possible rival in Yogi Adityanath. ‘Bache tum pehle Gorakhpur sambhalo, desh ki mujh pe chhod do.’

So, what have we learnt?

1. Mayawati’s voters are loyal to her, they will vote for whoever she asks them to. Even if it means voting for Yadavs. Her bargaining power is up.

2. It is not necessary the SP and BSP stay together in 2019. The BJP could get Mayawati on its side, it has happened before, it could happen again.

3. The BJP could strike a backroom deal with Mayawati and she could fight elections alone, with some friendly fights thrown in.

4. The Congress won’t have much say if the SP and BSP stick together. Why waste seats on a party which doesn’t have a vote bank of its own? It should consider itself lucky if the SP and BSP give them Amethi and Rae Bareli.

The results in Bihar are more interesting. The combined might of the BJP and Nitish Kumar could not beat Lalu Yadav’s candidate in Araria. If the votes stayed as they were in 2014, the NDA candidate should have won hands down.

Two things are possible.

1. People are so upset with Nitish, his former voters have voted for Lalu.

2. BJP voters ditched Nitish’s candidate, now he is at their mercy. The BJP for instance doesn’t mind Nitish fighting elections alone. In 2014, when he did so, Nitish was reduced to two seats. And Lalu is unlikely to ally with the Bihar CM again if he were to break away from the BJP. In all these calculations, Nitish ends up the biggest loser.

Modi can change all these calculations of course. All he needs to do is promise another 15 lakh rupees in you bank account. That would be like adding sugar to the rice batter, and you will then get neiyappam instead of dosa or idli.

PS: Many will argue there is no urad dal in neiyappam. That is poetic licence.

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Eeda, the story of Kannur

I am just back from a vacation and depressed, and I am three Old Monk pegs down, yet I write this, because Eeda is a film that should be watched and talked about.

In the theatre I saw the film, there were two in the audience, I and an IT professional. When the film began, he was sitting in the last row, I somewhere in the middle. After the interval, we took seats next to each other, hoping our change of seats will make sure a good ending for the hero and heroine.

From the beginning the love affair between Anand and Aishwarya was doomed to fail. Their fate was sealed the day they fell in love, Sara had told me (she had watched the movie before me).

The two lovers come from BJP and CPM families in Kannur, that northern district of Kerala which has made national headlines, thanks to the bloodsport played by the two political parties.

The film is more than just a love affair. It is also about the longest political feud of India, one that has claimed over hundred lives in the last five decades or so. The film exposes both BJP and CPM in equal measure, though it doesn’t name them.

Shane Nigam has done a wonderful job, his dad Aby deserved to see his performance. Aby, himself an actor, died a few weeks before the film released.

The real star is Nimisha Sajayan. While writing the review of her previous film Thondimuthalum Driksakshiyum I had to Google-search her name. Now I am a fan.

Nimisha is an unlikely heroine. She isn’t fair, she isn’t glamorous, she isn’t size zero. What she is, is a versatile actor. Her expressions are priceless. The trepidation while proposing, the joy and relief when she knows Anand too likes her, the agony when she knows he comes from a BJP family, the futility, the anguish, the tragedy… You will fall in love with Aishwarya, you will pray for her and Anand, you will feel the despair, you will feel the pain, and you will feel helpless as the story unfolds.

Anand and Aishwarya are Romeo and Juliet, tweeted N.S. Madhavan. How I wish she was Cinderella and he the prince.

PS
This film must be shown to national media journalists who treat Kannur violence as a scorecard just like the BJP and CPM do. Everybody overlooks the human cost.

In my spirited exuberance, I failed to mention writer-director Ajithkumar. He has exposed how the BJP and CPM trample individual liberties in so-called party villages. Expect more and better films from him. 

5 lessons for Rahul Gandhi from Gujarat elections

Play according to pitch
Winning an election is like playing a Test match. You have to read the pitch correctly. In Gujarat Rahul Gandhi read the pitch correct. In a state where 90% of the population is Hindu, in a state which is an advertisement for Hindutva, in a state that swears by the Gujarat model, in a state where Muslims have been reduced to political irrelevance, soft Hindutva was the right and only option. Rahul did what needed to be done, he lost the plot in the slog overs.

Never go on the defensive 
Those days when batsmen grafted runs and battled to save a Test are over. Most elections in the recent past have thrown up a clear winner. So playing for a draw is not an option. The fight for Gujarat began well for the Congress. Rahul raised questions about business dealings of Amit Shah’s son, but later he lost steam. Give the voter a talking point every now and then.


Fight Bodyline with Bodyline
Narendra Modi and Amit Shah are the Douglas Jardine of Indian politics. There is no limit they won’t cross to win an election. In the final stages of the campaign when PM Narendra Modi accused the Congress of conspiring with Pakistan to win Gujarat elections, Rahul Gandhi and company went numb. They had no clue how to deal with the beamers. Against such hostile attacks, inane comments like ‘hum pyaar ki boli bolenge’ don’t work. Having been fed steroids for a long while, people of Gujarat , or for that matter India, are not going to settle for a cup of coffee. So accuse Modi of doing something nastier, the Indian voter may not fall for it, but they enjoy this kind of mud-slinging. If not that, Rahul could have said something like, ‘Modi went to Pakistan uninvited and gatecrashed a wedding, if he wanted a hara bara kebab, we could have got them for him from a dhaba here (make sure you don’t say Karim’s). You get the idea.

Underarm bowling is fair
In a match there are many things a captain may not want to do but gets his players to do it. Outsource such work to state leadership, they know the pitch better than you, let them bat freely. Elections are about divisions, caste divide vs Hindu-Muslim divide etc. In Karnataka, Siddaramaiah has his own fringe army - the Kannada activists - to fight the parivar fringe. The ban on Sunny Leone for instance. Even before the likes of Sri Ram Sene could raise an issue, the Kannada activists entered the stage and stole the show. They even insisted Sunny wear a saree. It couldn’t have gotten better. Please don’t spoil it by reining in Sidda anna.

Migrate to cities
Politics of 2 rotis a day doesn’t work anymore. India is rapidly urbanising, people are shifting from farming to other activities, nobody can win power by not winning the urban votes. Dump garibi hatao, coin a new slogan. Ghar ghar, ek car, or something more materialistic and aspirational. No, free pastas and pizzas through PDS won’t do.

Here is raising a toast to Modi and Rahul. Keep us entertained.

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